TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2017
Typhoon Nesat
7/29/2017 4:00:00 PM
Type of postingPosting date:time ESTSummaryScenariosDownloads
Post Landfall 17/31/2017 1:00:00 PM 
Landfall 7/29/2017 4:00:00 PM 
Summary
Downloads
Posting Date: 7/29/2017 4:00:00 PM

ALERT™ subscribers can download similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for Typhoon Nesat's impacts in Taiwan from the Downloads tab of this website.

Meteorological Summary

Over the course of the last two days, Typhoon Nesat kept meteorologists guessing as to when and where it would make landfall on Taiwan. After a westward turn and an increase in intensity yesterday, Typhoon Nesat again slowed and resumed a more northwesterly course, likely due to interaction with Tropical Storm Haitan, which is approaching Taiwan from the south. Nesat ultimately made landfall near the northeast harbor town of Suao (est. pop. 41,000 in 2014), Yilan County, at 11:10 UTC (7:10 p.m. local time), July 29, according to Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau. Maximum 1-minute sustained winds at landfall were 170 km/h equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. Central pressure was 960 mb. Nesat was Taiwan's first typhoon landfall of the season.

Storm Impacts

On Friday, in advance of the storm’s arrival, officials in Taitung, Hualien, and Yilan counties announced the closing of schools and offices. Closings were finally announced for Saturday evening (local time) across the country. Closings will continue through Sunday in many areas including Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s second largest city. Festivals and events scheduled for the weekend have been canceled or postponed. Mandarin Airlines, Uni Air, and Far Eastern Air Transport canceled around 350 flights across the island and between Taiwan and Hong Kong. Ferry services between Taiwan and outlying islands were suspended.

Nesat brought high waves and gusty winds to Taiwan’s relatively sparsely populated east coast. The biggest threat, however, remains flooding from heaving precipitation, which is forecast to be as much as 250-500 mm (10-20 inches) and even 900 mm (35.4 inches) in isolated mountainous locations. Officials are also warning of landslides. The more populous southwest may see up to 200 mm (8 inches). The southernmost county of Pingtung suffered the worst flooding. In the capital Taipei, heavy rain caused flash flooding and wind gusts brought down trees. As many as a quarter of a million households were left without power at the height of the storm. However, there have been no reports as yet of widespread wind damage to property.
Because of Nesat’s northerly track, its passage over the mountains of central Taiwan was a quick one, preventing any significant weakening. However, it remains unclear whether Nesat will be able to retain typhoon status by the time it makes landfall on mainland China.

Vulnerability

While there have been reports of flooding and power outages caused by Typhoon Nesat, there have, as yet, been no reports of significant property damage from wind. Strictly enforced building codes throughout the nation have resulted in structures with generally good wind resistance, and wind damage is usually concentrated on non-structural components or poorly built structures.

Low- to mid-rise buildings in Taiwan typically have reinforced concrete frames with brick infill walls. Some masonry residential buildings can also be found, although the majority of these were built prior to 1950. In recent years, these residences have given way to mid-rise apartment buildings and three-story residences, with both types generally of masonry construction. Most buildings in the country are fairly new, however, and recent residences tend to be high-rise complexes built in clusters, predominantly reinforced concrete and many with ceramic façades (although some are steel).

Commercial and industrial buildings in Taiwan usually date to 1970 or later and generally are built to better structural standards than residences. About half of Taiwan’s commercial and industrial stock is made of steel while the rest is mostly reinforced concrete.

Forecast Track and Intensity

Typhoon Nesat is expected to continue across the Taiwan Strait and make a second landfall in China’s Fujian province where evacuations are already underway. It remains unclear, however, whether the storm will retain typhoon status or make landfall in China as a tropical storm. In either case, heavy rainfall could cause significant flooding over a large area. The AIR tropical cyclone team continues to monitor the storm’s progress and will provide additional updates if warranted.

Typhoon Nesat
Central Weather Bureau
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