- ABOUT ALERT
- MODELED PERILS
- AIR MODELING
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The ClimateCast® U.S. Hurricane Risk Indexprovides a real-time assessment
of insured risk by making direct use of operational model forecasts of storm track
and intensity. A full distribution of scenarios is run through the AIR U.S. Hurricane
Model and the expected value of that distribution is indexed against the model's
exceedance probability curve. The resulting index value is reported on a scale from
0 to 10, with the confidence level quantified by the spread of the loss distribution.
The index is updated at least once every 6 hours, and more frequently when the risk
is significant. The Risk Index will have a non-zero value whenever an active tropical
cyclone threatens the U.S. The higher the index, the higher the threat of insured
loss in the U.S. The index calculation can be customized to a portfolio or disaggregated
to a finer resolution. For a more detailed description of the factors that influence
the U.S. Hurricane Risk Index, click here.
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Environmental Conditions
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