MONDAY, MARCH 30, 2015

The ClimateCast® U.S. Hurricane Risk Indexprovides a real-time assessment of insured risk by making direct use of operational model forecasts of storm track and intensity. A full distribution of scenarios is run through the AIR U.S. Hurricane Model and the expected value of that distribution is indexed against the model's exceedance probability curve. The resulting index value is reported on a scale from 0 to 10, with the confidence level quantified by the spread of the loss distribution. The index is updated at least once every 6 hours, and more frequently when the risk is significant. The Risk Index will have a non-zero value whenever an active tropical cyclone threatens the U.S. The higher the index, the higher the threat of insured loss in the U.S. The index calculation can be customized to a portfolio or disaggregated to a finer resolution. For a more detailed description of the factors that influence the U.S. Hurricane Risk Index, click here.


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