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Flooding in Italy
Status: Monitoring
| Type of posting | Posting date(EST): | Summary | Downloads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Final Summary | 6/14/2023 6:00:00 AM |
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| Summary of Impacts | 5/18/2023 12:00:00 PM |
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Final Summary | Summary
Posting Date: June 14, 2023, 6:00:00 AM
A major flood event – caused by a pair of excessive rainfall events May 1-3 and 16-17 – severely impacted areas of northeast Italy, in particular the Emilia-Romagna region, late last month.
Event Overview
Many of the affected areas are still cleaning up and working toward recovery now weeks later, especially in some of the hardest hit areas such as Ravenna. 15 people perished as a result of the event, and more than 35,000 people were temporarily displaced from their homes. Of the approximately 70 river gauges observed across the region, nearly 20 showed water levels at a 100-year return period or higher per the Verisk Flood Model for Italy, as shown in Figure 1 below:
Figure 1: Estimated Return Period for Observed Event Peak River Flows in Emilia-Romagna Region (Source: Verisk)
The historic peak river flows were spread across a broad swath of Emilia-Romagna, impacting the provinces of Bologna, Forlì-Cesena, Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Ravenna, Reggio Emilia, and Rimini within that region. In addition, more than 400 landslides were caused by the flowing, including approximately 100 in Forli Cesena, 90 in Ravenna, 40 in Bologna, 25 in Modena, 15 in Reggio Emilia, and more than ten in Rimini.
The Emilia-Romagna region of Italy is one of the most flood prone regions of the country. Figure 1 below shows the percentage of exposure within 100-year flood zones per the Verisk Inland Flood Model for Italy, with the impacted regions from this event highlighted within the blue boundary.
Flood Insurance in Italy
The majority of risks in the Italian insurance market do not cover Flood. For commercial and industrial lines of business, Verisk data indicates that approximately 45% of risks are covered for flooding. The market for residential flood insurance in Italy is sparse, and as in many regions, there is a major gap in protection for these risks as they are not typically covered by standard policies. Per figure 2 below, the take up rate for residential flood insurance across Italy is quite low, and in the areas impacted by this event, on the order of 1-3%.
Figure 3: Residential Flood Insurance Take Up Rates in Italy (Source: Verisk)
As a result of the low take up, the proportion of the extensive residential damage caused by this event covered by the insurance market will likely be a small percentage of the overall insurable loss. Many factors are contributing to this protection gap – among them the lack of modeling solutions to help inform fair pricing and management of the risk. The soon to be released Verisk Inland Flood Model for Italy aims to be a part of the solution to this problem. To be released in Touchstone Re in June 2023, and in Touchstone in January 2024, this fully probabilistic model provides a comprehensive view of the potential inland flood risk in this highly prone country.
Figure 4: Modeled Ground Up Loss Costs for Inland Flood Risk in Italy (Source: Verisk)
The model will provide 10,000 simulated years of potential flood event scenarios, physically modeled at a 25 m resolution, informed by ISPRA, Hanze, and other industry data, and including probabilistic modeling of flood defenses across the country.
To learn more about the Verisk Inland Flood model for Italy, click here or contact your Verisk representative.
