WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2018
Typhoon Jebi
11/8/2018 6:00:00 PM
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Post Landfall 211/8/2018 6:00:00 PM 
Post Landfall 19/9/2018 6:00:00 PM 
Landfall 9/4/2018 7:00:00 PM 
Summary
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Posting Date: 11/8/2018 6:00:00 PM

After re-analyzing Typhoon Jebi’s meteorology and analyzing additional data sources for wind and surge, AIR Worldwide has updated the event sets, which better represent insured losses from Typhoon Jebi.

ALERT™ subscribers can now download updated custom event sets for Touchstone®, Touchstone ReTM, and CATRADER®, loss-based similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs, and a wind shapefile of the median loss for Typhoon Jebi. 

A Re-Analysis of Winds from Typhoon Jebi over Japan, Osaka 

A re-analysis of Typhoon Jebi was performed by AIR scientists using satellite imagery to ensure the wind speed characteristics of this unique event were captured in our typhoon model. In the hours leading up to Typhoon Jebi’s landfall in Japan, the pressure in the eye began to increase; however, as the storm approached Osaka Prefecture, the convection on the east side of the eyewall began to intensify in association with the storm’s transitioning from a tropical cyclone to an extratropical cyclone—aided by a pool of warmer water, which provided moisture and instability.

As the storm center propagated inland, a squall line of intense convection formed near Osaka. Using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)-estimated central pressure of 950 mb for Jebi in our model would not allow us to accurately represent the wind speeds caused by the formation of this squall line, which heavily devastated the Osaka region, so the central pressure was decreased from the JMA value to capture the very strong winds that resulted from it. A further adjustment was made to the radius of maximum winds to reflect the very localized nature of this feature. As a result, the size of the wind field has decreased, which is contrary to what is usually experienced during extratropical transition. Our modeled wind speeds now match the highest observed wind speeds throughout Japan and, in particular, Osaka. Reported observations from the Amedas network within the Osaka region may not be representative of the actual winds from Jebi, as weather stations in dense urban environments are often sheltered. Observed damage within Osaka was used to assist in validation of the modeled hazard.

AIR’s loss estimates explicitly capture residential, commercial, industrial, automobile, and agriculture/mutual losses from wind and storm surge. These loss estimates were derived based on AIR’s high-resolution Industry Exposure Database (IED) for Japan and the event’s hazard measures, including wind speed and surge inundation depth, modeled using the event-based probabilistic AIR Tropical Cyclone Model for Japan. AIR’s loss estimates and event footprint reflect all affected areas in Japan. 

The range in AIR’s loss estimates also reflects uncertainty in the payment of damage to buildings, damage to contents, and extra expenses. Please note that total economic losses are expected to be higher than industry insured loss estimates.

See below for additional information on what AIR’s loss estimates capture.

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates include:

  • Insured damage to property (residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural/mutual), both structures and their contents, and automobile

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates do not include:

  • Losses from precipitation-induced flood
  • Landslide
  • Losses to land
  • Losses to infrastructure
  • Losses to CAR/EAR, marine hull, or marine cargo lines of business
  • Business interruption losses
  • Loss adjustment expenses
  • Demand surge—the increase in costs of materials, services, and labor due to increased demand following a catastrophic event; demand surge can be applied by AIR software users who want to account for this variable
Typhoon Jebi
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