TUESDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2018
Camp and Woolsey Wildfires 2018
12/6/2018 9:00:00 AM
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Update 212/6/2018 9:00:00 AM 
Update 111/30/2018 10:30:00 AM 
First Posting 11/14/2018 12:30:00 PM 
Summary
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Posting Date: 12/6/2018 9:00:00 AM

AIR Worldwide estimates that industry insured losses from the Camp Fire in Northern California will be between USD 6 billion and USD 9 billion. Taken together with the Woolsey fire in Southern California, AIR estimates that industry insured losses from these two California fires will be between USD 9 billion and USD 13 billion.

ALERT™ subscribers can download a Touchstone®-ready raster file of the Camp Fire burn scar and a list of impacted ZIP Codes from the Downloads tab. The burn scar, created based on high-resolution satellite data, represents AIR’s estimate of the area actually burned by the fire.

AIR’s loss estimates explicitly capture residential, mobile home, commercial, and automobile losses, as well as direct business interruption losses. Loss estimates were derived utilizing the AIR Wildfire Model for the United States and are based on exposures as of the end of 2017.

AIR’s estimates of insured losses are based on the assumption of nearly 100% take-up rates. The fact that damage from fire, including wildfire, is included in standard homeowners’ policies in California informs that assumption. The range of loss estimates is based on the modeled loss within the burn scar and reflects uncertainty in the payment of additional living expenses resulting from mandatory evacuations, loss of some individual structures outside of the most affected neighborhoods, extra expense and ordinance losses, as well as loss due to smoke, loss of electricity, and damage from suppression efforts. Please note that total economic losses are expected to be higher than industry insured loss estimates.

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates for the Camp Fire include:

  • Insured physical damage to property (residential, mobile home, and commercial), both structures and their contents, and auto
  • Direct business interruption losses
  • Demand surge—the estimated increase in costs of materials, services, and labor due to increased demand following a catastrophic event

 

 AIR's modeled insured loss estimates for the Camp Fire do not include:

  • Losses to uninsured properties
  • Losses to land
  • Losses to infrastructure
  • Losses from indirect and contingent business interruption
  • Loss adjustment expenses

Camp Fire Event Summary (Butte County, Northern California)

The Camp Fire surpassed previous records to become both the deadliest and most destructive single wildfire in California on record. This vegetation fire ignited on November 8 near Camp Creek Road in Butte County and spread quickly due to low humidity, strong winds, and dry fuels. Just days after ignition, a representative from the International Association of Fire Fighters said, “[the town of] Paradise was literally wiped off the map.” Full containment was achieved on November 25.

To date, the Camp Fire has burned 153,336 acres and destroyed more than 18,700 structures: 13,696 single-family homes, 276 multi-family homes, 528 commercial structures, and 4,293 other structures. In addition, 564 structures were damaged: 462 single-family homes and 102 commercial structures. Eighty-five civilian casualties have been reported.

Camp and Woolsey Wildfires 2018
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