Winter Storm Eberhard

First Posting | Summary
Posting Date: March 13, 2019, 11:00:00 PM

AIR Worldwide estimates that insured losses due to wind from Winter Storm Eberhard will range between EUR 900 million and EUR 1.5 billion, the majority of which are expected in Germany.

Note that these estimates reflect wind damage from Eberhard to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural properties, and automobiles.

Sources of significant uncertainty:

• Observation data for extratropical cyclones in Europe are from weather stations that record 3-second gust and sustained wind speeds. These measurements are strongly influenced by the very local environment of the station as well as by additional wind variability occurring within the storm. The variation in the final modeled wind footprints depends on the assumptions and methods pertaining to how 3-second wind gusts and their uncertainty are assimilated into the model and how these values are extrapolated to areas away from weather stations.

ALERT™ subscribers can download wind event sets for Eberhard. Also available is a Touchstone^®-ready wind footprint shapefile of the median scenario, as well as loss-based similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for wind.

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates include:

• Insured physical damage from wind to property (residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and auto), including structures and their contents, as well as business interruption and additional living expenses

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates do not include:

• Losses due to coastal or inland flooding
• Additional living expenses (ALE) for residential claims for all modeled countries, except the UK (note that clients’ ALE exposures can be modeled in Touchstone)
• Losses to uninsured properties
• Losses to infrastructure
• Demand surge (AIR’s demand surge function is not triggered by this event)
• Losses from Freya/Bennet, Laura/Cornelius, or Dragi

Winter Storm Eberhard follows on the heels of Freya/Bennet, which affected Wales and England on March 3, bringing strong winds and some flooding then impacted Germany and parts of France and Denmark through March 5; Laura/Cornelius, which affected the UK and Scandinavian countries later the same week; and Dragi, which affected Northern Europe just before Eberhard. On March 9-10 Eberhard first struck the UK, the Netherlands, and Belgium, then began impacting Germany and finally headed farther east, affecting Austria, the Czech Republic, and Poland. Local authorities reported felled trees, power outages, and travel disruption—including rail, road, and aviation.

First Posting | Downloads
Posting Date: March 13, 2019, 11:00:00 PM

Simulated Event Set

Note: The "All simulated scenarios" set consists of all the events simulated by AIR using the event's actual parameters. The "Select simulated scenarios" set consists of a subset of the full distribution that is most representative of the range of potential industry losses.

Similar Stochastic Event IDs

Note: These lists give event IDs taken from our stochastic catalog that have similar characteristics as the current event.

Additional Downloads

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