FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2019
Typhoon Lekima
8/14/2019 5:15:00 PM
Type of postingPosting date:time ESTSummaryScenariosDownloads
Post Landfall 18/14/2019 5:15:00 PM 
Landfall 8/9/2019 4:30:00 PM 
Summary
Downloads
Posting Date: 8/14/2019 5:15:00 PM

AIR Worldwide estimates that insured losses in China from Typhoon Lekima will exceed CNY 6 billion.

AIR’s insured wind and flood loss estimates include take-up rates that vary by line of business and province. Note, however, that there is considerable uncertainty around these take-up rates. 

Touchstone®, Touchstone Re™, and CATRADER® event sets, loss-based similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs, and a wind shapefile of the median loss are available to ALERT subscribers on the Downloads tab.

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates include:

  • Insured physical damage to onshore property (residential, industrial, commercial, and Construction All Risks/Erection All Risks), for both structures and their contents due to wind and/or precipitation-induced flooding in the following provinces in China: Anhui, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Zhejiang
  • AIR’s assumed take-up rates—that is, the percentage of properties in China that are actually covered against wind and flood damage

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates do not include:

  • Losses to uninsured properties
  • Losses to infrastructure
  • Losses from storm surge
  • Losses resulting from landslides
  • Losses to crops, livestock, and poultry
  • Losses to auto
  • Losses resulting from physical failure of flood defenses
  • Losses from hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism, or civil commotion whether directly or indirectly caused by the event
  • Builder's risk
  • Demand surge
  • Other non-modeled losses

Storm Summary

Typhoon Lekima made landfall in Taizhou, Zhejiang, China, at 2 a.m. on August 10 local time, with JMA-estimated 1-minute sustained wind speeds of 181 km/h (112 mph), the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Lekima was the strongest storm to hit this region since Typhoon Chan-hom struck in July of 2015.

The ninth typhoon this year, Lekima briefly had a peak intensity  of 920 mb, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). After Lekima passed north of Taiwan, Lekima’s maximum 1-minute sustained winds weakened to 181 km/h with a central pressure of 950 mb as it struck China’s east coast about 200 miles south of Shanghai, bringing torrential rain.

Lekima’s path moved slowly north-northeast through Zhejiang Province, passing over the city of Shanghai and crossing Jiangsu Province at a fast forward speed exceeding 40 km/h. The storm made a second landfall on the coast of Qingdao in Shangdong Province at 8:50 p.m. Sunday, local time, at tropical storm strength, continuing north across the province to reach Bohai Bay on Monday, August 12. Typhoon warnings were in effect for Shandong, Hebei, and Liaoning provinces through August 12.Continued heavy rainfall is expected over China’s northeastern coast. At least 49 fatalities have been reported in Shandong, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces.

Records were broken as a weather station in Shangdong measured 217.5 mm of rainfall between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon—the highest since record-keeping for precipitation began in 1952. As of August 12th, 73 rivers reached or exceeded flood levels and regional authorities warned of more flooding due to continued heavy rainfall in the four northern provinces.

Reported Impacts

In advance of the storm, China issued a red alert on Friday—its highest of four levels—before revising it down to an orange alert on Saturday. The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) warned that the slow-moving typhoon would mean a longer duration of wind impacts and more rainfall, so flood preparations were stepped up. More than 1 million people from Zhejiang Province and 88,000 from Shandong were evacuated.

Gales and heavy downpours struck all along Zhejiang, Shandong, and neighboring provinces as Lekima moved north, triggering landslides and flooding roads, homes, businesses, and cropland. One landslide north of the city of Wenzhou blocked a river, causing a temporary earthen dam that later burst, deluging the village of Shanzao. Damaged roads and interruptions to power and telecommunications have been reported all along the storm’s path.

In Shangdong, operations at major oil refineries were closed down as of August 13 due to flood damage and lack of road access, and there were conflicting reports of riverine flooding damaging facilities at aluminum plants. Many businesses along the coast were closed in advance of the storm, and local officials warned of potential damage to chemical plants.

According to Xinhua, the official state-run press agency of the People's Republic of China, nine provinces were affected by Lekima: As of Tuesday, 4 p.m. CST, 13,000 houses had collapsed, 119,000 had been damaged, and 996,000 hectares of cropland were affected. At least 36,000 houses were damaged and 234,000 hectares of cropland were affected in Zhejiang. In Shangdong, winds and torrential rains reportedly destroyed 609 houses and affected 175,400 hectares of cropland. Neighboring Anhui Province also reported damage to homes, cropland, and roads. Flooding inundated thousands of greenhouses in Shouguang, a major vegetable production center.

Travel, tourism, and shipping have been particularly affected by Lekima. Train, plane, and bus travel were suspended, and ships were recalled to port in advance. Two of Shanghai’s largest airports canceled most flights, with hundreds of cancellations reported at other airports across China, including in Beijing. Major tourist destinations around the northeast were closed, including Shanghai Disneyland, with the potential for further business interruption as recovery from the storm continues.

 

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Typhoon Lekima
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