FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2019
Hurricane Dorian
9/2/2019 12:30:00 PM
Type of postingPosting date:time ESTSummaryScenariosDownloads
Post Landfall 29/13/2019 8:00:00 AM 
Post Landfall 19/10/2019 9:30:00 AM 
Landfall 9/6/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 79/6/2019 9:00:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 69/5/2019 1:00:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 59/4/2019 11:00:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 49/3/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 39/2/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 29/1/2019 11:30:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 18/29/2019 10:30:00 AM 
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Summary
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Posting Date: 9/2/2019 12:30:00 PM
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 11 a.m. EDT, Dorian dropped just below its long-lived Category 5 intensity and was a strong Category 4 hurricane located at 26.8°N, 78.3°W over eastern Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas and moving west at 1 mph with a central pressure of 922 mb and maximum sustained wind speed of 155 mph.

The NHC forecast stated that “Dorian has almost come to a standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island.” The storm is expected to move slowly west-northwestward, followed by a turn north and northeastward. Hurricane Dorian is expected to remain a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) for the next several days. The NHC also stated that, “Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, it is still possible for the hurricane to deviate from this forecast, and move very near or over the coast.”

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Grand Bahama and Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas. According to the NHC, Grand Bahama Island will continue to experience a prolonged period of catastrophic winds throughout the day and into the night. In addition, heavy rains are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jupiter Inlet to Volusia/Brevard County line, Florida. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for north of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida, and for Volusia/Brevard County line to the mouth of St. Marys River, which separates Florida and Georgia. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for north of Golden Beach to Jupiter Inlet, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for north of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach, and for Lake Okeechobee in Florida. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Lantana, Florida, to the Volusia/Brevard County line and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect for north of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana, and for the Volusia/Brevard County line to the mouth of the St. Marys River.

According to the NHC, portions of the east coast of Florida are expected to experience life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds through mid-week. In addition, it is increasingly likely that the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina will experience strong winds and dangerous storm surge, and heavy rains are expected over coastal sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic states.

ALERT™ subscribers can now download similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for Hurricane Dorian from the Downloads tab. Compatible with Touchstone®, Touchstone Re™, and CATRADER®, SSEs were selected from AIR's standard 10K U.S. Hurricane Model based on event parameters (not industry losses) and should be used only for exposures in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

SSEs were also selected from the AIR Tropical Cyclone Model for the Caribbean based on event parameters (not industry losses). Given the slow forward movement of Hurricane Dorian and the storm’s impact to both Abaco Island and Grand Bahama Island in the Bahamas, AIR has selected a distinct set of SSEs for each of these islands, which should be used only for exposures for Abaco Island or Grand Bahama Island, respectively. More details are available on the Downloads tab.
Hurricane Dorian
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