FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2019
Hurricane Dorian
9/4/2019 11:00:00 AM
Type of postingPosting date:time ESTSummaryScenariosDownloads
Post Landfall 29/13/2019 8:00:00 AM 
Post Landfall 19/10/2019 9:30:00 AM 
Landfall 9/6/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 79/6/2019 9:00:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 69/5/2019 1:00:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 59/4/2019 11:00:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 49/3/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 39/2/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 29/1/2019 11:30:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 18/29/2019 10:30:00 AM 
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Summary
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Posting Date: 9/4/2019 11:00:00 AM

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 8 a.m. EDT, Dorian remained a Category 2 storm. Having moved north-northwestward parallel to the coast of Florida, it was located at 29.5°N, 79.6°W with a minimum central pressure of 964 mb and maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. Dorian’s forward speed had increased to 8 mph.

Dorian is expected to move northwest or north-northwest through this morning and turn north by this evening, followed by a turn north-northeast on Thursday morning. The NHC forecast stated that, “On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning.” A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Volusia/Brevard County line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, as well as for north of Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina. According to the NHC, hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area of Florida today and tropical storm conditions are currently affecting parts of the northeastern Florida cost. Tropical storm conditions will begin along the Georgia coast later this morning and will reach the Hurricane Warning area of the Carolinas later today, where hurricane conditions are expected by tonight. Along the Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida, to the Georgia/South Carolina border, 3 to 6 inches of rain are expected, with isolated instances of 9 inches near the Georgia coast.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for north of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Savannah River, North Carolina; north of Surf City, North Carolina, to the North Carolina/Virginia border; and for Albemarle and Pamlico sounds in North Carolina. In the coastal Carolinas, 5 to 10 inches of rain are expected, with isolated instances of 15 inches.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Sebastian Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County line in Florida, as well as for north of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Savannah River, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward. In southeast Virginia, 3 to 6 inches of rain are expected.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Surf City, North Carolina. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for north of Surf City, North Carolina, to Poquoson, Virginia, including Hampton Roads; Pamlico and Albemarle sounds in North Carolina; and the Neuse and Pamlico rivers in North Carolina. From Sebastian Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County line in Florida, water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet above ground; water levels could rise 3 to 5 feet above ground from the Volusia/Brevard County line, Florida, to Savannah River, North Carolina. Water levels could rise 4 to 7 feet from Savannah River to Isle of Palms, South Carolina, and 5 to 8 feet above ground from Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. From Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, to Cape Lookout, North Carolina, water levels could rise 4 to 7 feet above ground. Water levels could reach 4 to 6 feet above ground from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. From Duck, North Carolina, to Poquoson, Virginia, including Hampton Roads, water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet above ground.

ALERT™ subscribers can now download similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for Hurricane Dorian from the Downloads tab of the ALERT website. Compatible with Touchstone®, Touchstone Re™, and CATRADER®, SSEs were selected from AIR's standard 10K U.S. Hurricane Model based on event parameters (not industry losses) and should be used only for exposures in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

SSEs from the AIR Tropical Cyclone Model for the Caribbean based on event parameters (not industry losses) for exposures in the Abacos Islands and Grand Bahama Island were issued on Monday, September 2, and are available from the "Pre-Landfall 3" posting on the Downloads tab of the ALERT website.

Hurricane Dorian
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