FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2019
Hurricane Dorian
9/5/2019 1:00:00 PM
Type of postingPosting date:time ESTSummaryScenariosDownloads
Post Landfall 29/13/2019 8:00:00 AM 
Post Landfall 19/10/2019 9:30:00 AM 
Landfall 9/6/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 79/6/2019 9:00:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 69/5/2019 1:00:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 59/4/2019 11:00:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 49/3/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 39/2/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 29/1/2019 11:30:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 18/29/2019 10:30:00 AM 
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Posting Date: 9/5/2019 1:00:00 PM

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 11 a.m. EDT, Dorian had returned to Category 2 intensity after re-intensifying to a Category 3 storm overnight Wednesday to Thursday as it moved north-northwestward parallel to the coast of Florida before turning northeastward and taking aim at South Carolina’s coast this morning. It was located at 32.5°N, 79.1°W with a minimum central pressure of 958 mb and maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. Dorian was moving north-northeastward with a forward speed of 8 mph. The storm’s eyewall was just offshore of the eastern coast of South Carolina.

Dorian is expected to turn northeast by tonight, then continue northeastward with a faster forward speed on Friday. The NHC forecast stated that, “On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of South Carolina today, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday.”

Dorian is off the coast of the Carolinas, and tropical storm conditions have already affected parts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Hurricane conditions are expected along parts of the South Carolina coast in the next few hours. More than 221,000 customers are without power in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina this morning, the majority of which are in South Carolina. A mandatory evacuation order has been lifted in coastal Georgia. In Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, damage to some structures and vehicles has occurred and investigations are underway into a possible tornado as the cause.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Savannah River, North Carolina, to the North Carolina/Virginia border, as well as Pamlico and Albemarle sounds in North Carolina. According to the NHC, tropical storm conditions are spreading along the coast of North Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected later today. In the coastal Carolinas, 6 to 12 inches of rain are expected, with isolated instances of 15 inches.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island, Delaware; Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point in Maryland southward; Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island, Maryland; and Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Savannah River, North Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Mid-Atlantic states of the Tropical Storm Warning area by Friday. In far southeastern Virginia, 3 to 8 inches of rain are expected.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, as well as Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area of the Mid-Atlantic states Friday or Friday night, and in parts of southeastern Massachusetts late Friday or early Saturday. In extreme southeastern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to Poquoson, Virginia; Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds in North Carolina; the Neuse and Pamlico rivers in North Carolina; and Hampton Roads, Virginia. From Awendaw to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina water levels could rise 5 to 8 feet above ground. Water levels from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico rivers, could reach 4 to 7 feet above ground. From Duck, North Carolina, to Poquoson, Virginia, including Hampton Roads, water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet above ground; Edisto Beach to Awendaw, South Carolina, could also see water levels rise 2 to 4 feet.

ALERT™ subscribers can now download similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for Hurricane Dorian from the Downloads tab of the ALERT website. Compatible with Touchstone®, Touchstone Re™, and CATRADER®, SSEs were selected from AIR's standard 10K U.S. Hurricane Model based on event parameters (not industry losses) and should be used only for exposures in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

SSEs from the AIR Tropical Cyclone Model for the Caribbean based on event parameters (not industry losses) for exposures in the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island were issued on Monday, September 2, and are available from the "Pre-Landfall 3" posting on the Downloads tab of the ALERT website.

Hurricane Dorian
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