Hurricane Dorian
9/6/2019 9:00:00 AM
Type of postingPosting date:time ESTSummaryScenariosDownloads
Post Landfall 29/13/2019 8:00:00 AM 
Post Landfall 19/10/2019 9:30:00 AM 
Landfall 9/6/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 79/6/2019 9:00:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 69/5/2019 1:00:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 59/4/2019 11:00:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 49/3/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 39/2/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 29/1/2019 11:30:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 18/29/2019 10:30:00 AM 
Posting Date: 9/6/2019 9:00:00 AM

AIR estimates industry insured losses resulting from Hurricane Dorian in the Caribbean will be between USD 1.5 billion and USD 3 billion.

ALERTTM subscribers can download custom event sets, loss-based similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs, and a wind shapefile of the median event for the Caribbean from the Downloads tab of the ALERT website. Compatible with Touchstone®, Touchstone Re™, and CATRADER®, SSEs were selected from AIR's Tropical Cyclone Model for the Caribbean based on industry losses (not event parameters) and should be used only for exposures in Grand Bahama and Abaco islands.

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates for the Caribbean include:

  • Damage to onshore residential, commercial, and industrial properties and their contents, as well as automobiles
  • Time element coverage (additional living expenses for residential properties and business interruption for commercial properties that experience physical loss from both direct and indirect sources)
  • Storm surge (implicitly accounted for in the wind damage functions)

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates for the Caribbean do not include:

  • Loss to offshore properties, pleasure boats, and marine craft (losses for boats inside a building may be estimated if their replacement value is included as contents)
  • Losses to infrastructure
  • Losses from hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism, or civil commotion whether directly or indirectly caused by the event
  • Demand surge (users may choose to turn on demand surge or input a demand surge function of their own)
  • Losses resulting from the compromise of existing defenses (e.g., levees)
  • Losses to uninsured properties
  • Other non-modeled losses, including loss adjustment expenses

Event Summary

Dorian became a hurricane on August 28 after developing from a tropical wave in the Central Atlantic. The storm made landfall on St. Thomas later that day as a Category 1 hurricane. Dorian then tracked through and out of the Virgin Islands. Favorable conditions in the Caribbean Sea and Lesser Antilles fueled Dorian’s development, resulting in rapid intensification into a major Category 4 hurricane on August 31. Further intensification occurred, and Dorian reached Category 5 intensity on September 1, becoming the strongest hurricane to affect the northwestern Bahamas in the modern record.

The storm made landfall on Great Abaco Island on September 1, with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and a minimum central pressure of 911 mb—ultimately bottoming out at 910 mb a few hours later. After achieving its peak intensity during landfall, Dorian’s forward speed decreased. It reached Grand Bahama Island on September 2, where it effectively stalled for nearly a day. Dorian began to drift northwestward on September 3, slowly gaining forward speed as it moved away from the Bahamas toward Florida but weakening on its way. The storm was a Category 2 hurricane off the eastern coast of Florida on September 3 and 4 as it continued northward. Dorian will have significant impacts along the North and South Carolina coasts, but should weaken in response to increasing vertical wind shear.

Reported Impacts

Due to Dorian’s track, much of the Caribbean experienced little or no damage outside of the Bahamas. In Barbados, some trees and power lines were downed and some homes experienced power and water disruption. There were also some power disruptions in St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica. More extensive power outages were experienced on St. Thomas and St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands, where island-wide blackouts occurred. In St. Croix, about 25,000 customers lost power, trees were downed across the island, and boats broke loose from moorings along the coast. The British Virgin Islands also experienced some flooding and power disruption, with isolated instances of structural damage and downed trees.

In the Bahamas, Grand Bahama and Abaco Island were devastated by Hurricane Dorian; buildings were destroyed, roofs were torn off, trees were felled, streets and homes were flooded, and cars, boats, and debris were strewn everywhere. Satellite imagery of the heavy flooding in the Bahamas took the media by storm. The Bahamian prime minister said, "We are in the midst of the greatest national crisis in our country's history." Hurricane relief organizers who flew over the hardest-hit area of the Abacos described the damage as total devastation, stating that there’s nothing to rebuild and they would instead have to start again.

Hurricane Dorian
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