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Winter Storm Ciara Sabine 2020
Status: Closed
| Type of posting | Posting date(EST): | Summary | Downloads |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Posting | 2/13/2020 8:00:00 PM |
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First Posting | Summary
Posting Date: February 13, 2020, 8:00:00 PM
AIR Worldwide estimates that insured losses due to wind from Winter Storm Ciara-Sabine will range between EUR 1.1 billion and EUR 1.9 billion, the majority of which are expected in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.These estimates reflect wind damage from Ciara-Sabine to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural properties, and automobiles.
Sources of significant uncertainty:
- Observation data for extratropical cyclones in Europe are from weather stations that record 3-second gust and sustained wind speeds. These measurements are strongly influenced by the very local environment of the station as well as by additional wind variability occurring within the storm. The variation in the final modeled wind footprints depends on the assumptions and methods pertaining to how 3-second wind gusts and their uncertainty are assimilated into the model and how these values are extrapolated to areas away from weather stations.
ALERT™ subscribers can download wind event sets for Ciara-Sabine from the Downloads tab. Also available is a Touchstone®-ready wind footprint shapefile of the median scenario, as well as loss-based similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for wind. The information provided herein is strictly confidential and is solely for the use of AIR clients; disclosure to others is prohibited unless noted in your AIR software license.
AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates include:
- Insured physical damage from wind to property (residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and auto), including structures and their contents, as well as business interruption and additional living expenses
AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates do not include:
- Losses due to coastal or inland flooding
- Additional living expenses (ALE) for residential claims for all modeled countries, except the UK (note that clients’ ALE exposures can be modeled in Touchstone)
- Losses to uninsured properties
- Losses to infrastructure
- Demand surge (AIR’s demand surge function is not triggered by this event)
Storm Ciara was officially named on Wednesday, February 5, by the UK Met Office, the third windstorm the agency has named this season. Ciara struck parts of Ireland and the UK on Sunday, February 9, then moved to Europe where it was named Sabine in Germany and also impacted France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Sweden, Denmark, and Norway (where it is called Elsa), and other European countries.
In addition to significant wind damage, Storm Ciara has caused coastal and inland flooding in the UK and downed trees and power lines, which caused 675,000 homes to lose electricity there, in addition to 10,000 in Ireland. Power outages affected tens of thousands of homes in Germany and France as well, with power cuts affecting nearly 500,000 people across Europe.
Hundreds of flights were canceled in the UK, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands; long-distance train service was suspended in Germany and in the UK trains ran on a reduced schedule; and the ports of Dover, England, and Calais, France, were shut down. In addition, storm surge affected Hamburg after Sabine caused the Elbe River to rise. The Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Sweden, and the UK have reported deaths. There are many reports of injuries caused by fallen trees and wind-borne debris.
First Posting | Downloads
Posting Date: February 13, 2020, 8:00:00 PM
Simulated Event Set
Note: The "All simulated scenarios" set consists of all the events simulated by AIR using the event's actual parameters. The "Select simulated scenarios" set consists of a subset of the full distribution that is most representative of the range of potential industry losses.
| Product | Version | Description | Download |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOUCHSTONE Re | 7 | Selected Set of Simulated Scenarios | |
| TOUCHSTONE | 7 | Selected set of simulated scenarios | |
Similar Stochastic Event IDs
Note: These lists give event IDs taken from our stochastic catalog that have similar characteristics as the current event.
| Product | File Type | Description | Download |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOUCHSTONE | xls | Selected Set of Stochastic Events | |
| TOUCHSTONE Re | xls | Selected Set of Stochastic Events | |
Additional Downloads
Note: Additional downloads related to the posting are listed below. Please use the appropriate application to view these files.
| Title | File Type | Description | Download |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Storm Ciara Sabine - Modeled Wind Footprint | Shapefile (.shp) | Shapefile of the median loss scenario wind footprint for Winter Storm Ciara Sabine and instructions for uploading it into Touchstone. | |
