Central Europe Flooding

Impacts Through 16 September | Summary
Posting Date: September 16, 2024, 3:00:00 PM

Historic flooding is ongoing across parts of central Europe, largely the result of Storm “Boris”, which has dropped months’ worth of rain in just a few days and is expected to continue doing so through Tuesday in many regions.  A combination of cold air from the north has mixed with moisture drawn up from the unusually warm waters of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea along with an area of low pressure has been trapped between high pressure to both the west and east.

Like the flooding this past June, Boris is a Vb (“five-b”) type storm.  In Europe, weather is often determined by low pressure systems that move across the continent from west to east. In a Vb weather situation, however, the path of the low-pressure system changes: The low-pressure system moves towards the Mediterranean Sea due to colder air masses over western Europe. Depending on the position of the core, such low-pressure areas in the Mediterranean are also known as Genoa, Adriatic or Balearic lows. The low-pressure area pushes very humid air from the Mediterranean region past the eastern side of the Alps and north across the Czech Republic and Poland to Scandinavia. As it moves across Europe, the low-pressure system causes heavy precipitation.  Although Vb weather conditions can develop at any time of the year, they usually occur in spring and fall, when a strong exchange occurs between the cold northern and warm southern air masses.  

The flooding has impacted several countries across the region since last Thursday: Czechia, Poland, and Austria have seen the worst so far, with Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Germany also affected to varying degrees.  In Germany, parts of Saxony, Bavaria, and Brandenburg have been flooded. State officials said (on Sunday) the Elbe River at Schöna, near the border with the Czech Republic, was expected to crest at 7.50 meters (23 feet) on Tuesday afternoon, which would be enough to trigger the highest alert level in the area. In Dresden, which sits on the Elbe, mobile barriers are being set up to protect the city from floodwaters. In Czechia, the town of Jesenik in the northeast region of that nation has been inundated by floodwaters and completely cut off from surrounding areas for the time being.  Nearby Lipova-lazne has been similarly affected, with that town seeing about 500 mm of rain over the past several days.  Elsewhere in Czechia, 10,000 people out of a population of around 56,000 in the city of Opava have been asked to evacuate.

A bridge collapsed in the historic Polish town of Glucholazy near the Czech border and local officials ordered evacuations early on Sunday. Local media said another bridge collapsed in the mountain town of Stronie Slaskie, where a dam burst, according to the Polish weather institute.  Authorities in Lower Austria have declared the entire northeastern state a disaster zone, with more than 1,000 houses evacuated and dams beginning to burst.  Power outages have also been reported, and there has been partial flooding along the banks of the Wien River.  The worst impacts may be yet to come in Hungary, where Budapest Mayor Gergely Karacsony warned residents of the largest floods in a decade, expected to hit later this week. He cited forecasts predicting that the Danube River water would breach the capital's lower quays by Tuesday morning.  Elsewhere, Slovakia has also declared a state of emergency in its capital, Bratislava, since Saturday, and the mayor of Slobozia Conachi, a village in Romania's south-eastern Galati region, said 700 homes had been flooded there.

Several factories and stores across Central Europe have been forced to shut down production or sales on Monday owing to the widespread flooding. In the northeastern Czech city of Ostrava, the BorsodChem chemical plant has been one of those to shut.  One of the largest producers of foundry coke in Europe, OKK Koksovny, also in Czechia, has stopped chemicals production but was continuing to keep coking batteries at minimum levels.  Veolia Energie also shut its Trebovice electricity and heating plant, the company said.  In Poland, Polish retailer Zabka meanwhile said some 80 of its outlets were currently closed, mainly in the area around the southwest town of Klodzko

Railway and other transportation services have been affected by the storms, with fallen trees blocking several railway links. Polish rail operator PKP has suspended train services to the neighboring Czech Republic due to severe flooding. Trains from the Czech Republic to Poland have been canceled until further notice, the state-owned company said.  Trains from Poland to the Czech Republic will stop at the last station before the border. In Germany, A section of the B99 federal highway in Görlitz has been closed for safety reasons.

The proportion of the ultimate economic impact of this event paid by the insurance industry will vary by country.  In Austria and Czechia, flood insurance take-up rates are relatively high, and most the insurable loss is likely to paid out there across all lines of business.  Take up is similar in Germany for commercial, agricultural, and auto risks, but somewhat lower in residences.  In Poland, a majority of the commercial risk is covered, but only a small fraction of homes and autos are covered for flood. 

Rain is expected to continue through Tuesday In Germany, Austria, Poland, and western Czechia, and water levels are expected to continue to rise in many areas over the next 36 to 48 hours.  After that, high pressure and more typical pleasant late summer weather will move into the region.

The Verisk ALERT Team continue to monitor this event and will provide additional updates as warranted over the next few days, including an update on potential additional plans for ALERT postings.  The event has driven several activations of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service rapid flood mapping product, which can be viewed and downloaded here.  In the meantime, please contact your Verisk representative with any additional questions about this event.

Impacts Through 16 September | Downloads
Posting Date: September 16, 2024, 3:00:00 PM