Severe Weather in Europe and U.S.

Event Summary - June 30 Update | Summary
Posting Date: June 30, 2021, 4:00:00 PM

Over the second half of June 2021 several outbreaks of severe thunderstorms have caused significant losses across Europe. Global media attention was focused on a tornado in the Czech Republic initially rated EF3, which caused local devastation and killed at least four people. While severe thunderstorms in other areas were not necessarily reported by global news outlets, they were responsible for most of the accumulated losses. Photographic evidence of baseball-sized hail (6-7 cm) emerged from multiple regions in Switzerland, Austria, the Czech Republic, and Germany.

As of this writing some Swiss insurers, who as a group make up a significant share of the market, issued press releases reporting initial claims estimates in excess of CHF 400 million (USD 433 million). Extrapolating these initial estimates, it seems realistic that the property losses in Switzerland caused by the severe thunderstorms of last week could be higher than USD 700 million. This would place the events roughly at the 10% annual loss exceedance probability in the AIR Severe Thunderstorm Model for Europe. Comments in the press releases by Swiss insurers also hint at the event being in the 10- to 15-year return period range. In terms of claims severity, the average property claim in Switzerland is expected to be on the order of CHF 5,000.

While publicly disclosed claims estimates for Germany are not yet as abundant, it seems possible based on early indications that the industry could face a loss exceeding EUR 1 billion there as well.

Europe’s severe thunderstorm season is causing unusually high losses and is not over yet. In fact, severe thunderstorm risk is often referred to as an aggregate peril, meaning that multiple events over the course of the season often add up substantially. Therefore, the discrepancy between the aggregate EP curve (considering all events) and the occurrence EP curve (considering only the largest event) is relatively large compared to other perils. Users of the AIR Severe Thunderstorm Model for Europe can easily analyze their risk profile and optimize their reinsurance structure accordingly. Touchstone® users can also calculate their exposure concentrations in areas affected by ongoing events with the Geospatial Analytics Module.

AIR will continue to monitor severe thunderstorms affecting Europe, but no forther postings are scheduled at this time.

Event Summary - June 30 Update | Downloads
Posting Date: June 30, 2021, 4:00:00 PM