Hurricane Irene

Pre-Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: October 14, 1999, 1:00:00 PM

As of 17:00 EDT, Wednesday, October 13, Hurricane Irene is located about 120 miles south-southwest of Key West. Maximum sustained winds are 75 mph and central pressure is 993 mb, making Irene a minimal Category 1 hurricane at this time. The storm, which is moving to the north northeast at 7 mph, will cross Cuba in the next several hours and enter the Straits of Florida. Irene is expected to be over the Florida Keys sometime on Friday. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Using the most recent information regarding the meteorological parameters of this storm, the AIR tropical cyclone modeling team have run dozens of simulations representing a variety of assumptions about the storm’s future track and intensity. The resulting scenarios and loss estimates range on the basis of Irene’s making landfall somewhere between Ft. Meyers to the south and Apalachee Bay to the north, and that the storm’s intensity at landfall could range from a minimal Category 1 to a strong Category 2. AIR estimates that insured losses in the continental US will not exceed $4.6 billion. These largest simulated losses assume that Irene will make landfall as a strong Category 2 hurricane somewhere north of Tampa. This track would mean that the stronger, right-hand side of the storm tracks along the west coast of Florida, bringing high winds to both St. Petersburg and Tampa. If the storm does not make landfall near Tampa, losses should not exceed $2.5 billion, and they could be much lower. As always, it is important to note that there is considerable uncertainty with respect to both the future intensity and track of this storm. AIR will continue to monitor Hurricane Irene closely. As many of you may know, however, our Boston office is relocating this weekend. Our Web server will, as a result, be inaccessible by our clients as of tomorrow afternoon. The next update on Irene will therefore be posted on Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall somewhere along the western coast of Florida.

Pre-Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 14, 1999, 1:00:00 PM