Hurricane Jose

Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: October 20, 1999, 1:00:00 PM

As of 17:00 EDT, Wednesday, October 20, Hurricane Jose is located about 55 miles southeast of St. Maarten. The storm is currently moving to the northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph and central barometric pressure is 983 mb, making Jose a Category 2 hurricane. Further strengthening is possible. Hurricane Jose is forecast to move over the northwest portion of the Leeward Islands during the next several hours. The most likely track takes Jose close to the US Virgin Islands sometime tomorrow, but to the east and away from Puerto Rico. It is important to emphasize, however, that there is still a high degree of uncertainty with respect to the future track of this storm. If we account for the 95% confidence bands around the storm’s most likely track, there remains a significant possibility that Jose will pass over Puerto Rico. The AIR tropical cyclone modeling team has run new simulations based on Jose’s actual track to date, as well as on current information regarding the meteorological parameters and likely future track of this storm. If the storm maintains its current most likely track, losses should not exceed $1 billion. If Jose moves to the east of the current projected track, losses should be much lower. Only tracks that cross Puerto Rico result in losses in excess of $1 billion.

Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 20, 1999, 1:00:00 PM