Status: Closed
Type of posting |
Posting date(EST): |
Summary |
Downloads |
Post Landfall 1 |
11/21/1999 4:00:00 PM |
|
|
Landfall |
11/18/1999 11:00:00 AM |
|
|
Pre-Landfall 3 |
11/17/1999 3:00:00 AM |
|
|
Pre-Landfall 2 |
11/16/1999 8:00:00 AM |
|
|
Pre-Landfall 1 |
11/15/1999 5:00:00 AM |
|
|
Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: November 16, 1999, 8:00:00 AM
As of 13:00 EST, Tuesday, November 16, Hurricane Lenny is located about 300 miles southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The storm is moving in an easterly direction at 16 mph but it is expected to turn to the northeast within the next 24 hours. Lenny is currently a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and a central barometric pressure of 973 mb. Further strengthening is possible.
Hurricane Lenny is forecast to pass over the US Virgin Islands and the eastern portion of Puerto Rico sometime tomorrow. There is still a high degree of uncertainty, however, with respect to the future track of the storm.
The AIR tropical cyclone modeling team has run close to 300 simulations representing a range of possible scenarios. If the storm maintains its current most likely track, losses should not exceed $1.5 billion. If Lenny moves to the east of the current projected track, losses should be significantly lower. Only tracks that cross both Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands result in losses in excess of $1.5 billion.
Our latest scenarios may be viewed by accessing the Event Scenario page of this Web site. CATRADER clients can now download event sets representing the entire range of simulated scenarios.
AIR will continue to monitor the progress of the storm and will post additional information and event sets as necessary.
Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: November 16, 1999, 8:00:00 AM