Tropical Depression Lenny

Pre-Landfall 3 | Summary
Posting Date: November 17, 1999, 3:00:00 AM

As of 08:00 EST, Wednesday, November 17, 1999, Hurricane Lenny is centered 85 miles southwest of St. Croix. The storm is moving in an east-northeasterly direction at 13 mph. Lenny is currently a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph and a central barometric pressure of 950 mb. Lenny's intensity increased overnight as it became more organized. The storm is forecast to pass over the US Virgin Islands later this evening. Projections indicate that Lenny may slow down or even stall over the course of the next 24 hours. The AIR tropical cyclone team has run close to 400 new simulations representing a range of possible scenarios. Lenny took a more easterly track and moved further away from Puerto Rico than was projected last night. If the storm maintains its current most likely track, losses should not exceed $1 billion. Only certain tracks that pass closest to Puerto Rico result in losses in excess of $1 billion. It is important to note that there is still a high degree of uncertainty with respect to the future track of the storm. Our latest scenarios may be viewed by accessing the Event Scenario page of this Web site. CATRADER clients can download event sets representing the entire range of simulated scenarios. AIR will continue to monitor the progress of the storm and will post additional information and event sets as necessary.

Pre-Landfall 3 | Downloads
Posting Date: November 17, 1999, 3:00:00 AM