Tropical Storm Pabuk

Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: August 19, 2001, 4:00:00 AM

As of 8:00 a.m., EDT, Sunday, August 19, 2001, Typhoon Pabuk was located about 350 miles (560 km) south-southeast of Nagasaki, Japan. The storm is currently tracking in a north-northwesterly direction at 9 mph (14.5 kmh). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)estimates maximum sustained winds at 110 mph (177 kmh) with gusts up to 132 mph (212 kmh). The Japan Meteorological Agency reports a central pressure of 960 mb. Pabuk, which means "big freshwater fish" in Lao, is expected to continue on its northwesterly path over the next twelve hours, then take a turn toward the north, and finally move in a northeasterly direction, skirting the islands of Kyushu and Shikoku to the east. Most models suggest that Pabuk will not intensify significantly before landfall, which is currently projected for sometime Tuesday morning. The JTWC projected track brings Pabuk on shore somewhere south of Wakayama, on southern Honshu. It is important to emphasize, however, that there is considerable uncertainty about the future track and intensity of this storm. In light of that, and using the most recent information about the meteorological parameters of this storm, the AIR tropical cyclone modeling team has run dozens of simulations representing a wide range of assumptions about the storm’s future track and intensity. The resulting scenarios and loss estimates, which are available to CATRADER clients on the Scenarios Page of this web site, range on the basis of Pabuk’s making landfall as far west as Hiroshima and actually by-passing Tokyo to the east, and that the storm’s intensity could range from a strong Category 2 to a weak Category 4 storm. AIR continues to monitor the situation closely and will post new scenarios and further information becomes available.

Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: August 19, 2001, 4:00:00 AM