Tropical Storm Pabuk

Pre-Landfall 3 | Summary
Posting Date: August 20, 2001, 4:00:00 AM

As of 8:00 a.m., EDT, Monday, August 20, 2001, Typhoon Pabuk was located about 345 miles (555 km) southwest of Kyoto, Japan. The storm is currently tracking northward at 8 mph (13 km/h). Wind speeds have diminished somewhat in the last 24 hours and maximum sustained winds are now estimated at 92 mph (148 km/h) with gusts of 115 mph (185 km/h). Some models suggest that Pabuk will continue to weaken as it encounters a westerly vertical wind shear. The track currently projected by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center takes the storm somewhat east of the one posted yesterday. Landfall is now expected to occur to the east of Ise Bay, near Hamamatsu, at around noon (EDT) tomorrow. As always, however, there remains considerable uncertainty about the future track and intensity of this storm. Using the most recent information about the meteorological parameters of this storm, the AIR tropical cyclone modeling team has run new simulations representing a variety of assumptions about the storm’s future track and intensity. The resulting scenarios and loss estimates, which are available to CATRADER clients on the Scenarios page of this web site, range on the basis of Pabuk’s making landfall as far west as Kochi, Shikoku, and by-passing Tokyo to the east, and that the storm’s intensity could range from a weak to a strong Category 2 storm. Note that loss estimates that appear on the Scenarios page represent insured loss and are denominated in Japanese Yen. CATRADER clients may also download new event sets representing the full range of simulations. AIR will continue to monitor Pabuk and will post new scenarios as the storm approaches land.

Pre-Landfall 3 | Downloads
Posting Date: August 20, 2001, 4:00:00 AM