Hurricane Lili

Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: October 3, 2002, 8:00:00 AM

Hurricane Lili made landfall south of Lafayette, LA this morning (Thursday, October 3, 2002) at about 9:30 a.m. EDT. The intensity of this storm decreased significantly overnight and Lili was classified as a Category 2 storm at landfall with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph (161 kph) and a central pressure of 962 mb. Fortunately, Lili made landfall along a sparsely populated stretch of coast near Marsh Island, in the western portion of Vermillion Bay, Louisiana. This, and the fact that the storm’s diameter was relatively small, means that insured losses are expected to be relatively low. Further weakening is expected as the storm moves inland. The AIR tropical cyclone team has collected the currently available information about the meteorological parameters of this storm at landfall and run new simulations based on this information. AIR estimates that insured losses from wind damage will be on the order of $600 million. Current track projections indicate that Lili will continue in a northerly direction. If the storm takes a dramatically different turn, losses could be higher. It is important to remember that the true values of the meteorological parameters of this storm at the time of landfall are still not known. In light of this uncertainty and uncertainty surrounding the storm’s future track, AIR has posted a range of loss estimates. All clients may now view the latest scenarios by accessing the Scenarios page of this web site. CATMAP/2, CATRADER and CLASIC/2 clients can also download event sets representing the entire range of simulated scenarios. The AIR tropical cyclone team is continuing to monitor this storm and may post additional information if necessary.

Landfall | Downloads
Posting Date: October 3, 2002, 8:00:00 AM