Status: Closed
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Posting date(EST): |
Summary |
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Post Landfall 1 |
10/4/2002 11:00:00 AM |
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Landfall |
10/3/2002 8:00:00 AM |
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Pre-Landfall 3 |
10/2/2002 4:00:00 PM |
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Pre-Landfall 2 |
10/2/2002 9:00:00 AM |
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Pre-Landfall 1 |
10/1/2002 7:30:00 AM |
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Pre-Landfall 3 | Summary
Posting Date: October 2, 2002, 4:00:00 PM
As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Lili is centered 285 miles, (458 km) south of New Orleans, Louisiana. The storm is moving toward the northwest at about 16 mph (26 kph) and is expected to make a more northerly turn over the next 12 hours. Lili is currently a Category 4 hurricane with central pressure of 938 mb.
Hurricane Lili is currently expected to make landfall as a Category 4 storm along the coast of Louisiana around noon on Thursday. The NHC projected track indicates that Lili will make landfall along a relatively sparsely populated stretch of coast near Marsh Island. Furthermore, Lili is currently a very tightly wound storm with a radius of maximum winds of between just 10 and 15 miles. While a small radius of maximum winds tends to be correlated with a very intense hurricane, it also means that the affected area will be relatively small.
Using information about the current meteorological parameters of this storm and assumptions regarding the storm’s future track and intensity at landfall, AIR has run hundreds of simulations through its U.S. hurricane model.
Based on the NHC projected track and intensity, AIR estimates that insured losses from wind damage only will be in the range of $2 billion. Note that this estimate does not include losses due to flooding.
There is still considerable uncertainty, however, as to the storm’s future track and intensity. If Lili is caught up in the easterlies and makes landfall close to New Orleans as a mid-Cat 4, insured losses could reach $7.5 billion. If the storm’s radius of maximum wind increases, this figure could be larger.
Finally, aerial reconnaissance currently suggests that Hurricane Lili is characterized by two concentric eyewalls. Storms with this feature have historically exhibited a tendency to fluctuate in intensity. One scenario, for example, is for the inner eyewall to disintegrate, leaving intact the outer eyewall and thus a larger eye. This typically correlates to a somewhat weaker, though perhaps somewhat larger, storm system.
Five scenarios, along with wind speed and loss maps have been posted on the Scenarios page of this web site and are available for viewing by CATRADER and CLASIC/2 clients. Loss estimates associated with these scenarios range on the basis of Lili making landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast, between Port Arthur, TX, and DuLac, LA, as a Category 4 hurricane. In addition, event sets representing the full range of simulated scenarios are available for download.
AIR is continuing to monitor Hurricane Lili and will post new loss estimates tomorrow morning.
Pre-Landfall 3 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 2, 2002, 4:00:00 PM