Hurricane Fabian

Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: September 5, 2003, 7:00:00 AM

As of 8 a.m. EDT, Friday, September 5, 2003, Hurricane Fabian was positioned about 155 miles (250 km) south of Bermuda, and moving toward the north at about 17 mph (28 kph). A hurricane warning remains in effect for Bermuda, where the closest approach of the storm is now likely to be about 12 miles (19 km) northwest of the island at about 7 p.m. on Friday, September 5. All Friday flights into Bermuda have been cancelled, and offices of both businesses and government are closed. Current maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 kph) with higher gusts, making Fabian a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Intensity Scale. Minimum central pressure has risen to an estimated 951 mb. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the storm intensity could fluctuate over the next 24 hours. Because Fabian is a large storm, tropical storm force winds are expected to reach Bermuda early today, well in advance of the eye. The NHC is also predicting rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, and storm surge flooding of 6 to 10 feet above normal. The last hurricane to hit Bermuda was Emily in 1987, a Category 1 storm, which caused some $50 million in damage. Using the most recent information about the meteorological parameters of this storm, the AIR tropical cyclone modeling team has run hundreds of scenarios representing a variety of assumptions about the storm's future track and intensity. It is important to note, however, that there is still considerable uncertainty surrounding the actual parameters and future track of this storm. CATRADER(r) and CLASIC/2(tm) clients can now view wind speed and loss maps on the Scenarios page of this web site. In addition, event sets representing the full range of simulated scenarios are available for download. The AIR hurricane team will continue to monitor events in the area and will post additional information as necessary.

Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 5, 2003, 7:00:00 AM