Hurricane_Isabel

Pre-Landfall 3 | Summary
Posting Date: September 17, 2003, 8:00:00 AM

Hurricane Isabel is expected to make landfall along the North Carolina coast around 2 p.m. tomorrow. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT (1500 UT) Wednesday, September 17, Isabel was positioned about 400 miles (644 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and moving toward the north-northwest at about 9 mph (14 kph). This motion is expected to continue, with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours. A hurricane warning is in effect from Cape Fear, North Carolina, northward to Chincoteague, Virginia, including Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A tropical storm warning has replaced the hurricane watch in effect for Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point and the Tidal Potomac. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from south of Little River Inlet to South Santee River in South Carolina, and from Chincoteague, Virginia, north to Sandy Hook New Jersey, including Delaware Bay. In addition to mandatory evacuation orders for North Carolina's Outer Banks, some 75,000 residents from Hatteras to Duck, North Carolina, were urged to travel inland. Current maximum sustained winds are about 110 mph (177 kph) with higher gusts. Minimum central pressure is estimated at 958 mb, making Isabel a strong Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Intensity Scale. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles (507 km). Using the most recent information about the meteorological parameters of this storm, the AIR tropical cyclone modeling team has run many scenarios representing a variety of assumptions about the storm’s future track and intensity. Losses could significantly increase if the storm takes a more northerly track and intensifies. It is important to note that there is still considerable uncertainty surrounding the actual parameters of this storm. CATRADER® and CLASIC/2™ clients can now view wind speed and loss maps on the Scenarios page of this website. In addition, event sets representing the full range of simulated scenarios are available for download. AIR will continue to monitor this storm and will post additional information as the storm approaches landfall.

Pre-Landfall 3 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 17, 2003, 8:00:00 AM