Hurricane Frances

Pre-Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: September 1, 2004, 7:00:00 AM

Please note that the loss estimates posted at this time are for the Bahamas only. AIR will begin posting loss estimates for the U.S. mainland tomorrow. As of 11 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, Hurricane Frances is centered about 85 miles (135 km) east of Grand Turk Island, and 735 miles (1180 km) east-southeast of the Florida east coast. Frances is moving west-northwest at around 16 mph (26kph), and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts it to continue on the same track during the next 24 hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 kph) with higher gusts, making Frances a Category 4 hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward to 80 miles (130km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend to 185 miles (295 km). Minimum central pressure is currently estimated at 937 mb. The NHC warns that Frances could further intensify as it approaches the Bahamas. A hurricane warning for the central Bahamas was issued at 11 a.m., and a hurricane warning remains in effect for the southeastern Bahamas. Large waves are possible along the north coast of Hispaniola. Using the most recent information about the meteorological parameters of Frances, the AIR tropical cyclone modeling team has run hundreds of scenarios representing a variety of assumptions about the storm’s future track and intensity. Five of these are now posted on the scenarios page of this website, where CATRADER® and CLASIC/2™ clients can view wind speed and loss maps. In addition, event sets representing the full range of simulated scenarios are now available for download. Again, please note that the loss estimates provided at this time are for the Bahamas only. Also note that there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the future track and intensity of this storm. AIR is monitoring Hurricane Frances closely and will post additional information as the storm makes its way toward the Florida coast.

Pre-Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 1, 2004, 7:00:00 AM