Hurricane Frances

Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: September 2, 2004, 4:00:00 AM

Hurricane Frances, currently a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale, is expected to make landfall somewhere along the Florida east coast early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (235 km/hr). Minimum central pressure is estimated at 939 mb. Hurricane Frances is a large system with hurricane force winds extending outward to 80 miles (130 km) and tropical storm force winds extending to 185 miles (295 km). Frances is currently moving toward the west-northwest at around 13 mph (20 km/h). The storm is expected to continue this motion near or over the southeastern Bahamas this morning and over the central Bahamas later today. If current forecasts of Hurricane Frances’ future track and intensity prevail, there is a significant chance that Frances could replace Andrew as the costliest storm in U.S. history. Losses from Frances are very likely to exceed those from Hurricane Charley, which hit Florida’s west coast little more than two weeks ago. While the intensity of Frances, as measured both in wind speeds and central pressure, is similar to the intensity of Charley, Frances is a much larger system and will therefore likely carve a much wider swath of damage across Florida. Satellite images currently show a distinct eye with a diameter measuring 30 miles (45 km) and excellent outflow. While some models at the National Hurricane Center indicate a weakening before landfall, most models indicate that Frances will maintain most of its current strength. In addition, Frances’ forward speed is currently much lower than Charley’s was at landfall, which would have the effect of prolonging the duration of damaging winds at exposed sites, a significant determinant of losses. Finally, Frances could affect much more heavily populated areas than those affected by Charley. The AIR tropical cyclone team is monitoring Hurricane Frances very closely. We expect to post a full range of loss estimates for the U.S. later today. Please note that the loss estimates posted yesterday were for the Bahamas only.

Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 2, 2004, 4:00:00 AM