Hurricane Ivan

Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: September 16, 2004, 4:00:00 AM

After tracking north through the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Ivan finally made landfall around 2 a.m. local time on Thursday morning near Gulf Shores, Alabama as a strong Category 3 hurricane. Maximum sustained winds were 130 mph with higher gusts. Fortunately for New Orleans and Mobile, Ivan tracked just east of due North, sparing both cities from potentially devastating storm surge flooding. Nevertheless, winds were sufficiently high to down trees and blow off roofs. AIR expects extensive damage to mobile homes, siding and awnings, and light structures, such as carports. As of 8 a.m. EDT, Thursday, September 16, 2004, Ivan was located about 90 miles west-southwest of Montgomery, Alabama, heading on a northerly track at 17 mph. The NHC expects Ivan to turn gradually toward the north-northeast over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds have diminished to 80 mph and Ivan should continue to weaken gradually as it moves inland. Rainfall up to 15 inches is forecast for some areas which, in combination with high winds, is likely to lead to significant numbers of downed trees. As Ivan continues to move inland, it’s progress is expected to be blocked by a high pressure system over the southern Appalachians. The NHC anticipates Ivan to stall as a result, slowly dissipating in that area. A full posting, including new event sets, will be made later today. In the meantime, based on current information about the meteorological parameters and actual landfall location, the AIR tropical cyclone modeling team currently estimates that insured losses will be between $3 billion and $8 billion. Clients may call AIR at 617-267-6645 for event IDs from yesterday’s event set that most closely match Ivan’s meteorological parameters and actual landfall location.

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Posting Date: September 16, 2004, 4:00:00 AM