Hurricane Ivan

Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: September 9, 2004, 7:00:00 AM

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, Thursday, September 09, 2004 Hurricane Ivan was located 430 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Ivan to continue on that heading during the next 24 hours. Once Ivan crosses Cuba, however, the NHC forecast track is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. With maximum sustained winds at 160 mph, Ivan is now a Category 5 hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. Minimum central pressure is currently 920 mb. A hurricane warning has been issued for Jamaica, and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for the southwest peninsula of Haiti. Cayman Islands remains under a hurricane watch and central and eastern Cuba are now under a hurricane watch as well. The latest advisory from the NHC points out that hurricanes rarely maintain Category 5 intensity for prolonged periods, though the current forecast is for Ivan to fluctuate between a Category 4 and 5 until the storm reaches Cuba. Ivan’s interaction with the island of Cuba is expected to cause some weakening, as will increasing shear and somewhat lower water temperatures. Ivan ploughed across Grenada on Tuesday, leveling homes and leaving the entire island without power. Local officials report that 90% of homes on the island suffered some degree of damage. In Jamaica, urgent preparations are under way and emergency managers in the Florida Keys have ordered a mandatory evacuation for visitors today, and residents will begin evacuating on Friday. In September 1988, the eye of Hurricane Gilbert passed directly over Jamaica as a Category 4 storm, actually strengthening as it progressed. The capital, Kingston, took the worst of the storm, with recorded gusts up to 140 mph. Across the country, an estimated 100,000 homes, 4 out of every 5, were damaged. AIR continues to monitor Hurricane Ivan closely and will post additional information as the storm progresses.

Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 9, 2004, 7:00:00 AM