Hurricane Ivan

Pre-Landfall 3 | Summary
Posting Date: September 10, 2004, 10:00:00 AM

As of 2:00 p.m. EDT, Friday, September 10, 2004 Hurricane Ivan was located about 85 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects the storm to continue on that heading during the next 24 hours, bringing the eye near or over Jamaica late Friday or early Saturday. The NHC forecasts Ivan to arrive at the Cayman Islands late Saturday. Ivan has weakened somewhat over the last 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are currently 145 mph, making Ivan a Category 4 hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend to 175 miles. Minimum central pressure is currently 939 mb. The NHC advises that some fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next 24 hours. A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Half a million Jamaicans have been ordered to evacuate low-lying areas, but there is some doubt as to whether those orders are being heeded. Assuming Ivan crosses Jamaica, the island’s mountainous terrain may cause some weakening. However, once past the island, Ivan will once again be over very warm water and could restrengthen as it heads toward the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Beyond Cuba, the NHC forecasts Ivan to gradually weaken as it moves into lower water temperatures and an area of increased wind shear. The NHC currently projects Hurricane Ivan to make landfall sometime on Tuesday either along Florida’s west coast or the panhandle, though the NHC forecast track beyond 48 hours is characterized by considerable uncertainty. The AIR tropical cyclone team has run new scenarios using information about Ivan’s meteorological parameters and the storm’s actual and projected track through the Caribbean. Five of these are now posted on the scenarios page of this website, where CATRADER® and CLASIC/2™ clients can view wind speed and loss maps. In addition, event sets representing the full range of simulated scenarios are now available for download. Please note that the losses provided in this posting are for the Caribbean only. As always, please note there is still considerable uncertainty about the future track and intensity of this storm. AIR continues to monitor Hurricane Ivan closely and will post additional information as the storm progresses.

Pre-Landfall 3 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 10, 2004, 10:00:00 AM