Hurricane Ivan

Pre-Landfall 4 | Summary
Posting Date: September 12, 2004, 7:00:00 AM

As of 11:00 a.m., Sunday, September 12, Hurricane Ivan is located about 30 miles southwest of Grand Cayman and is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph. Ivan is currently a strong Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph and minimum central pressure of 919 mb. For most of Friday, it appeared that Jamaica would be hit head on by Hurricane Ivan, but the storm took a last-minute detour and skirted the island to the west, sparing Kingston and the areas most dependent on tourism from the most damaging winds. Nevertheless, reports of damage are widespread and include roofs blown off and beach homes gutted by storm surge. Damage assessment is only just beginning, however, particularly in the southwest where several parishes were made inaccessible by downed trees. Once past Jamaica, Hurricane Ivan restrengthened to a powerful Category 5 hurricane with winds of 165 mph. The National Hurricane Center reported a minimum central pressure of 910 mb, the sixth lowest in history for the Atlantic basin. By the time Ivan reached the Cayman Islands, winds had dropped back to 155 mph and the storm is currently expected to skirt Grand Cayman to the west. Buildings in the Cayman Islands are, in general, quite wind resistant as compared to those in Jamaica, and building code enforcement is generally good. Nevertheless, given the strength of this storm, damage is likely to be significant. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Hurricane Ivan to turn toward the northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours, which would bring it over westernmost Cuba around midday on Monday. The storm is currently making its way through an area of extremely warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear, which means that Ivan could strengthen again to Category 5 before hitting Cuba. After that, there remains considerable uncertainty as to the storm’s future track and intensity, though the NHC’s most likely track has Ivan making landfall along the Gulf coast, probably on the Florida panhandle, sometime on Wednesday. Beyond Cuba, Ivan will encounter the cooler water temperatures of the Gulf of Mexico and an area of increased wind shear, so some weakening is expected. The AIR tropical cyclone team has run new scenarios using information about Ivan’s meteorological parameters and the storm’s track through the Caribbean. Five scenarios of Jamaican losses are now posted on the scenarios page of this website, where CATRADER® and CLASIC/2™ clients can view wind speed and loss maps. In addition to the posted losses for Jamaica, the AIR analyses indicate that losses for the Cayman Islands will not exceed USD $3.5 billion. Event sets representing the full range of simulated scenarios are now available for download. Please note that the losses provided in this posting are for Jamaica only. AIR continues to monitor Hurricane Ivan closely and will post new information tomorrow.

Pre-Landfall 4 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 12, 2004, 7:00:00 AM