Hurricane Ivan

Pre-Landfall 6 | Summary
Posting Date: September 13, 2004, 10:30:00 AM

Please note that the losses provided in this posting are for the Caribbean only. AIR will post loss estimates for the U.S. later today. As of 2:00 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Ivan is once again a Category 5 storm on the Saffir Simpson scale. Currently located about 70 miles south-southeast westernmost Cuba, Ivan has made a more northerly turn and is now heading northwest at 8 mph. This track should bring Ivan near or over the western tip of Cuba later today. Hurricane Ivan strengthened to a Category 3 storm as it entered the Caribbean, making its way between Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago on September 7. Both countries were spared the most damaging winds, however. Grenada, a country not modeled by AIR, was not so lucky; Ivan is reported to have damaged 90 percent of the houses on the island. After some fluctuation in intensity, Hurricane Ivan arrived at Jamaica with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. At the last minute, however, Ivan made a detour to the west of Jamaica, sparing Kingston and the main resort areas from the worst of Ivan’s Category 4 winds. Nevertheless, the storm caused widespread damage, the heaviest of which is to the southeast parish of St. Thomas. Access to St. Thomas and other southwest parishes remains difficult. Once past Jamaica, Ivan again restrengthened to a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 910 mb, the sixth lowest in history for the Atlantic basin. Winds were down slightly to 155 mph by the time Ivan reached the Cayman Islands. While the center of the storm just skirted Grand Cayman to the west, the island was hit by winds of 150 mph and higher gusts, tearing off roofs and downing trees and utility poles. Damage is expected to be substantial and widespread. The AIR tropical cyclone team has run new scenarios using the latest information about Ivan’s meteorological parameters and the storm’s actual track through the Caribbean. Five representative scenarios are now posted on the scenarios page of this website, where CATRADER® and CLASIC/2™ clients can view wind speed and loss maps. Event sets representing the full range of simulated scenarios are now available for download. Again, please note that the losses provided in this posting are for the Caribbean only. AIR will post loss estimates for the U.S. later today.

Pre-Landfall 6 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 13, 2004, 10:30:00 AM