Hurricane Ivan

Pre-Landfall 7 | Summary
Posting Date: September 13, 2004, 1:00:00 PM

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, Monday, September 13, 2004 Hurricane Ivan was located about 30 miles south of the western tip of Cuba. Ivan is now moving north-northwest at 9 mph, though the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects the storm to revert to a northwestward motion later today. Maximum sustained winds remain at 160 mph with higher gusts, making Ivan a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale. Minimum central pressure continues to fall, however, and is currently estimated at 912 mb. This suggests that wind speeds may yet increase some. Ivan has also grown in size over the last several hours. The eye currently measures some 25-30 miles in diameter and hurricane force winds now extend outward up to 115 miles from the center. The center of Ivan should pass near or over westernmost Cuba within the next few hours. A hurricane warning is in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to Ciego De Avila, and for the northeastern Yucatan peninsula. Once past Cuba, Ivan will enter the relatively cooler waters of the Gulf and within 24 hours the storm will encounter a region of increased wind shear. Both are likely to lead to a gradual weakening before a projected landfall along the Gulf coast sometime Thursday morning. The AIR tropical cyclone team has run new scenarios using information about Ivan’s latest meteorological parameters and the storm’s projected track through the Gulf of Mexico. Five of these are now posted on the scenarios page of this website, where CATRADER® and CLASIC/2™ clients can view wind speed and loss maps. In addition, event sets representing the full range of simulated scenarios are now available for download. Please note that the losses provided in this posting are for the U.S. only. Also note that the range of loss estimates provided in this posting is quite large, reflecting the considerable uncertainty that exists with respect to the future track and intensity of Hurricane Ivan. AIR continues to monitor Ivan closely and will post additional information tomorrow.

Pre-Landfall 7 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 13, 2004, 1:00:00 PM