Status: Closed
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Posting date(EST): |
Summary |
Downloads |
Post Landfall 2 |
9/16/2004 1:00:00 PM |
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Post Landfall 1 |
9/16/2004 10:00:00 AM |
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Landfall |
9/16/2004 4:00:00 AM |
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Pre-Landfall 9 |
9/15/2004 10:00:00 AM |
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Pre-Landfall 8 |
9/14/2004 10:00:00 AM |
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Pre-Landfall 7 |
9/13/2004 1:00:00 PM |
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Pre-Landfall 6 |
9/13/2004 10:30:00 AM |
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Pre-Landfall 5 |
9/13/2004 9:59:00 AM |
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Pre-Landfall 4 |
9/12/2004 7:00:00 AM |
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Pre-Landfall 3 |
9/10/2004 10:00:00 AM |
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Pre-Landfall 2 |
9/9/2004 7:00:00 AM |
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Pre-Landfall 1 |
9/8/2004 10:00:00 AM |
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Pre-Landfall 9 | Summary
Posting Date: September 15, 2004, 10:00:00 AM
Please note that the five selected scenarios provided in this posting reflect the wide range of uncertainty that still exists with respect to the actual landfall location and intensity at landfall, which is currently projected for around 1:00 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Also, the large variation in exposure along this part of the coast contributes to the large range of estimated losses. The losses associated with these five posted scenarios range from the 10th to the 90th percentile in the full loss distribution. The median loss (50th percentile) in the full distribution is just over $5 billion. We strongly recommend downloading and running the full event set in your software to generate the statistics of interest to you.
As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, Wednesday, September 15, 2004 Hurricane Ivan was located about 195 miles south of Mobile, Alabama. Winds have diminished to 135 mph, but Ivan remains a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale. Minimum central pressure is currently 939 mb.
Hurricane Ivan has made its expected northward turn and is now moving to the north at near 14 mph. This motion, which is forecast to continue, would bring the center of Ivan over the Gulf coast near Mobile, Alabama, at around 1:00 a.m. on Thursday.
There is some possibility that Hurricane Ivan may continue to weaken before making landfall. The National Hurricane Center (NCH) now indicates that the eddy over which Ivan is currently passing is possibly not as warm as previously thought. Also, wind shear is expected to increase as Ivan approaches the coast. Nevertheless, the NHC forecasts that Ivan will still be a major hurricane at landfall.
Ivan remains a very large system with hurricane force winds extending outward up to 105 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend to 290 miles. A hurricane warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Apalachicola, Florida. Mandatory evacuations went into effect on Tuesday in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
The AIR tropical cyclone team has run new scenarios using information about Ivan’s latest meteorological parameters and the storm’s projected track. Five of these are now posted on the scenarios page of this website, where CATRADER® and CLASIC/2™ clients can view wind speed and loss maps. In addition, event sets representing the full range of simulated scenarios are now available for download.
Please note that there still exists uncertainty with respect to both the future track and intensity of Hurricane Ivan. AIR will continue to monitor Ivan closely and will post additional information as the storm progresses.
Pre-Landfall 9 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 15, 2004, 10:00:00 AM