Hurricane Jeanne

Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: September 24, 2004, 10:00:00 AM

Please note that the five selected scenarios provided in this posting reflect tracks clustered around the National Hurricane Center’s expected track and intensity at landfall ranging from Category 2 to a strong Category 3. Because of the considerable uncertainty with respect to the future track and intensity of this storm, we strongly recommend that clients download and run the full probability-weighted event set in your software to generate the statistics of interest to you. Given that we are still some 48 hours before projected landfall, the range of losses in this event set is quite wide. This range should narrow as Hurricane Jeanne approaches the Florida coast. Little more than a week ago, on September 16, Tropical Storm Jeanne was first upgraded to Category 1 hurricane status. Jeanne had crossed Puerto Rico as a tropical storm but strengthened in the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. The system’s interaction with Hispaniola quickly weakened it again, however, and Jeanne traveled most of the length of the Dominican Republic, just inland, as a tropical storm. Although the center of Jeanne never reached Haiti, flooding and mudslides from torrential rains were responsible for more than 1,000 deaths there, and hundreds are still missing. Over the next several days, Jeanne meandered in the open Atlantic but was once again upgraded to hurricane status on September 21. As of 2:00 p.m., Friday, September 24, Hurricane Jeanne is located about 255 miles east of Great Abaco Island and is moving to the west at 12 mph. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours, though some increase in forward speed is forecast, bringing Jeanne over the northwestern Bahamas sometime tomorrow. Jeanne is currently a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and minimum central pressure of 969 mb. The fact that Jeanne has been nearly stationary for the last several days has led to the upwelling of cold water from beneath the system, which has prevented any significant strengthening. However, as Hurricane Jeanne heads westward into warmer waters, some slow strengthening is possible. A hurricane warning is currently in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. A hurricane watch is in effect along the coast of Florida from Florida City to St. Augustine. Please note that there is considerable uncertainty as to Jeanne’s future track and intensity, particularly after 36 hours as it nears the Florida coast. The National Hurricane Center’s most likely track as of this posting has Jeanne making a turn up the coast of Florida, just slightly inland. The AIR tropical cyclone team has run scenarios using information about Jeanne’s meteorological parameters and the storm’s forecast track through the Caribbean. Five scenarios are now posted on the scenarios page of this website, where CATRADER® and CLASIC/2™ clients can view wind speed and loss maps. Please note that the losses provided in this posting are for the U.S. and Caribbean combined. As always, there is still considerable uncertainty with respect to the future track and intensity of this storm. AIR will continue to monitor Hurricane Jeanne closely and will post new information as the storm progresses.

Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 24, 2004, 10:00:00 AM