Hurricane Dennis

Pre-Landfall 4 | Summary
Posting Date: July 8, 2005, 2:01:00 PM

After skirting the eastern tip of Jamaica and dumping heavy rain across Haiti, Dennis now sits just to the south of Cuba and is poised to track across the western portion of that country. At 11:00 a.m. EDT, Friday, July 8, Hurricane Dennis was centered about 125 miles southeast of Havana, Cuba, and about 190 miles south-southeast of Key West, Florida. Dennis continues to move toward the northwest at about 15 mph. Sustained winds reached 150 mph earlier today but are now around 145 mph, making Dennis a very dangerous Category 4 hurricane. The latest estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb. Hurricane force winds extend outward 50 miles from the center with tropical storm force winds reaching up to 160 miles from the center. The majority of Cuba remains under a hurricane warning, as do the lower Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas. The remainder of the Keys are under a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch. The NHC forecast calls for Dennis to continue on this heading and gradually increase forward speed over the next 24 hours, putting the storm on track to hit the south-central Cuban coast later today. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts that the storm will weaken as it moves over Cuba, but is expected to remain a major hurricane as it emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains from Dennis caused extensive flooding in Jamaica and Haiti yesterday, where one person was killed and seven others are missing after the bridge they were crossing collapsed into the river. In Cuba, in preparation for Dennis, officials say 200,000 people have been evacuated from their homes to higher ground. Dennis is forecast to produce rain amounts of 5 to 10 inches across Cuba, with some localized mountainous areas receiving up to 15 inches. Portions of southern Florida, as well as Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, could receive 4 to 8 inches of rain. As Dennis continues along its track, it is expected to make landfall in the U.S. late Sunday. The AIR tropical cyclone team has run scenarios using the latest information about the storm’s meteorological parameters and its forecast track, which are posted on the Event Sets page of this website. Note that the results provided in this posting are for the U.S. only. On the Event Sets page there are both “All” and “Select” event sets for CATRADER and CLASIC/2. The “All” event set contains hundreds of scenarios simulated for this event and is therefore the most appropriate method for estimating your potential losses. A set of 11 specific scenarios, which are selected from the full event set and represent the range of potential losses across the full industry loss distribution, are available under the “Select” event set. Also included on the Scenarios page is the probability of loss exceedance curve for the industry using the “All” event set. AIR continues to monitor Hurricane Dennis closely and will provide a further update within the next 24 hours.

Pre-Landfall 4 | Downloads
Posting Date: July 8, 2005, 2:01:00 PM