Hurricane Dennis

Pre-Landfall 5 | Summary
Posting Date: July 9, 2005, 7:00:00 AM

As Dennis tracked across Cuba, it temporarily weakened to a Category 1 hurricane, but has since re-strengthened to a Category 2. At 7:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 9, Dennis was centered about 95 miles west-southwest of Key West, Florida. Dennis continues to move toward the northwest at about 14 mph. Winds are beginning to increase again as Dennis moves back out over water with sustained wind speeds now around 105 mph. The latest estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Hurricane force winds extend outward 65 miles from the center with tropical storm force winds reaching up to 175 miles from the center. The lower Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas are under a hurricane warning. The remainder of the Keys are under a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch. A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of Cuba and will likely be discontinued later this morning. The NHC forecast calls for Dennis to continue on its current heading and regain strength over the next 24 hours as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The storm is expected to make landfall in the U.S. early Sunday morning. As Dennis made landfall in Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane, 150 mph winds destroyed wooden homes along the southern coast and ripped corrugated metal roofs off structures. Cuban President Fidel Castro said 10 people had died in the storm. Isolated tornadoes are possible across central and southern Florida and the Florida Keys today. Dennis is forecast to produce rain amounts of 4 to 8 inches across the Florida Keys, with an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain across central Cuba. The AIR tropical cyclone team has run scenarios using the latest information about the storm’s meteorological parameters and its forecast track, which are posted on the Scenarios page of this website. Note that the results provided in this posting are for the U.S. only. On the Event Sets page there are both “All” and “Select” event sets for CATRADER and CLASIC/2. The “All” event set contains hundreds of scenarios simulated for this event and is therefore the most appropriate method for estimating your potential losses. A set of 11 specific scenarios, which are selected from the full event set and represent the range of potential losses across the full industry loss distribution, are available under the “Select” event set. Also included on the Scenarios page is the probability of loss exceedance curve for the industry using the “All” event set. AIR continues to monitor Hurricane Dennis closely and will provide a further update within the next 24 hours.

Pre-Landfall 5 | Downloads
Posting Date: July 9, 2005, 7:00:00 AM