Hurricane Katrina

Post Landfall 5 | Summary
Posting Date: August 28, 2005, 7:00:00 PM

As of 8:00 p.m. EDT, Sunday, August 28, Katrina is a powerful Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. Minimum central pressure is estimated at 904 mb, the fourth lowest on record for the Atlantic basin. Sustained winds have dropped from the high of 175 mph recorded earlier today and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates that some fluctuation in intensity is still possible before landfall. However, the NHC expects Hurricane Katrina to arrive on the Gulf Coast, south of New Orleans, either as a strong Category 4 or possibly as a Category 5 hurricane sometime tomorrow morning. If Katrina makes landfall as a Category 5 storm, it will be only the fourth since record-keeping began. The others were the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, 1969’s Hurricane Camille and 1992’s Hurricane Andrew, which still holds the record for the largest insured loss from a natural disaster in the U.S. Hurricane Katrina has continued to grow in size. Hurricane force winds currently extend outward up to 105 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical storm winds extend out to 230 miles. This means that wherever Katrina makes landfall, a large stretch of the northern Gulf coast will be affected. A hurricane warning is currently in effect for the north central Gulf coast from Morgan City, Louisiana east to the Alabama/Florida border. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are in effect from Destin, Florida to intercoastal Louisiana, west of Morgan City. A mandatory evacuation order has been issued for the city of New Orleans and many of Louisiana’s coastal parishes. Many residents lacking transportation out of the area have taken shelter in the city’s Superdome. In the French Quarter, residents and tourists are moving to upper stories in anticipation of severe flooding. Storm surge of 18 to 22 feet above normal tide levels—and up to 28 feet in some locations—can be expected. This means that flood waters will likely overtop at least some levees protecting New Orleans, much of which lies below sea level. The forecast track and intensity of Hurricane Katrina is reminiscent of two major historical events: Hurricane Betsy in 1965 and Hurricane Camille in 1969. Both came ashore in similar locations, south of New Orleans. Betsy, a Category 4 hurricane at landfall in Louisiana, then took a northwesterly path, keeping both New Orleans and Baton Rouge just to the right of the storm’s path, where the strongest winds occur. Betsy brought with it a storm surge of 8 to 10 feet, which submerged parts of the city in seven feet of water and caused 74 deaths. Hurricane Camille, the more deadly of the two storms with more than 250 fatalities, maintained a more northerly path after landfall skirting New Orleans and Baton Rouge to the right. AIR estimates that both storms, were they to recur today – given current property exposures and values – would cost the insurance industry well in excess of $10 billion. The AIR tropical cyclone team has run scenarios using the latest information about the storm’s current and forecast meteorological parameters, as well as its forecast track. Eleven of these are now posted on the Scenarios page of this website. Also included on the Scenarios page is AIR’s probability of loss exceedance curve for the industry. CATRADER and CLASIC/2 clients can download the event set representing the posted scenarios. Please note that the results provided in this posting are for Katrina’s first and second landfall combined. Both “All” and “Select” event sets are provided. The “All” event sets contains hundreds of scenarios simulated for this event and are therefore the most appropriate method for estimating your potential losses. Sets of 11 specific scenarios, which are selected from the full event sets and represent the range of potential losses across the full industry loss distribution, are available under the “Select” event sets. AIR continues to monitor Hurricane Katrina closely and will update the loss estimates tomorrow morning.

Post Landfall 5 | Downloads
Posting Date: August 28, 2005, 7:00:00 PM