Hurricane Katrina

Post Landfall 9 | Summary
Posting Date: August 30, 2005, 1:30:00 PM

Because Katrina’s second landfall occurred more than 72 hours after Katrina left south Florida, AIR is providing two sets of event sets for Hurricane Katrina. One is for Katrina’s combined losses from the two landfalls, the second is for Gulf losses (second landfall) only. These are being provided together in zipped files for CATRADER and CLASIC/2. Upon unzipping, users will be able to access the two files, which are clearly labeled. Hurricane Katrina will likely enter the record books as the most costly natural disaster in U.S. history, exceeding the $15.5 billion in insured losses caused by 1992’s Hurricane Andrew. After making landfall near Buras, Louisiana early Monday morning as a Category 4 hurricane, Katrina has continued to track north through Mississippi and into Tennessee. As of 11 a.m. EDT, August 30, Katrina is now a tropical depression located about 25 miles south of Clarksville with maximum sustained winds of near 35 mph. Katrina is expected to become extratropical within the next 12 to 24 hours. Katrina strengthened into a very powerful Category 5 hurricane over the weekend, achieving 175 mph winds and the fourth lowest central pressure on record for the Atlantic basin. Weakening slightly just before landfall, Katrina slammed into Louisiana as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds and a storm surge estimated at more than 20 feet in some locations. Taking a somewhat more northerly track than had been forecast a day earlier, the Mississippi coast received the brunt both of Katrina’s winds and storm surge. The downtown of Bay St. Louis, Mississippi is reported to have sustained major damage. In Gulfport, 75% of houses are reported to have sustained roof damage. In Biloxi, beachfront apartments and condominiums were leveled by winds and surge. Surge waters pushed up into Mobile Bay engulfed many high-value homes. New Orleans initially looked like it was going to avert the major catastrophe that many had predicted when a direct hit was forecast by the National Hurricane Center on Sunday. But last night, a two-block long breach occurred in one of the levees protecting the city from Lake Ponchartrain. Local officials report that as much as 80% of New Orleans is now under water, up to 20 feet deep in some areas. At least 55 fatalities have been reported in Mississippi. Louisiana officials have indicated that even greater numbers of fatalities can be expected there, though figures have not yet been released. Damage reports from Katrina’s second landfall along the northern Gulf coast are still just beginning to come in, and many areas are still inaccessible. However, AIR engineers expect significant and widespread structural damage and even collapse throughout coastal areas of eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. Widespread damage to roof coverings, awnings, carports, glazing and other non-structural, non-engineered components is expected as far east as Mobile Bay and well inland along the track. New information has become available about Katrina’s wind speeds at landfall and along the track. The AIR Tropical Cyclone team has run new scenarios based on this information and on Katrina’s actual track inland. Eleven of these are posted on the Scenarios page of this website. Also included on the Scenarios page is the probability of loss exceedance curve for the industry. On the Event Sets page there are both “All” and “Select” event sets for CATRADER and CLASIC/2. The “All” event set contains the full set of scenarios simulated for this event and is therefore the most appropriate method for estimating your potential losses. A set of 11 specific scenarios, which are selected from the full event set and represent the range of potential losses across the full industry loss distribution, are available under the “Select” event set.

Post Landfall 9 | Downloads
Posting Date: August 30, 2005, 1:30:00 PM