Hurricane Wilma

Pre-Landfall 4 | Summary
Posting Date: October 23, 2005, 7:30:00 AM

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Wilma is located about 40 miles north of Cancun, Mexico, and about 350 miles west-southwest of Key West, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are at 100 mph—making it a category 2 hurricane—and minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Wilma is moving toward the northeast at 3 mph. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles. A hurricane warning remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys, along Florida’s west coast from Longboat Key southward, and along Florida’s east coast from Titusville southward. A tropical storm warning remains in effect along Florida’s west coast north of Longboat Key northward to Steinhatchee River, and along Florida’s east coast from north of Titusville to Flagler Beach. Before finally moving offshore from Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula, Wilma punished the city of Cancun and the island of Cozumel for a second day, leaving the island’s luxury hotels and resorts flooded and damaging thousands of homes in the states of Yucatan and Quintana Roo. Seven people are reported to have died in the region as a result of the hurricane. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Wilma to increase its forward speed over the next 24 hours, continuing to move toward the northeast. While the eye of the storm is still large and poorly organized, it is becoming better defined and Wilma is expected to begin intensifying. Storm surge flooding of 8 to 13 feet above normal tides is possible along the southwest coast of Florida. Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches are expected across portions of Cuba with isolated amounts reaching 50 inches. Rainfall across southern Florida is expected to be 4 to 8 inches. The AIR tropical cyclone team has run scenarios using the latest meteorological information about Hurricane Wilma. Eleven scenarios are now posted on the Scenarios page of this website, with losses ranging from $39 million to $7.3 billion. This range represents the 5th to the 95th percentile of the exceedance probability curve. However, the full set of events available for download includes more extreme events that are less likely, but which could occur. On the Event Sets page there are both “All” and “Select” event sets for CATRADER and CLASIC/2. The “All” event set contains the full set of scenarios simulated for this event and is therefore the most appropriate method for estimating your potential losses. A set of 11 specific scenarios, which are selected from the full event set and represent the range of potential losses across the full industry loss distribution, are available under the “Select” event set.

Pre-Landfall 4 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 23, 2005, 7:30:00 AM