Tropical Storm Ophelia

Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: September 16, 2005, 8:30:00 AM

After skirting North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Thursday, Tropical Storm Ophelia is currently located about 65 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras. As of 8 a.m. EDT, Friday, September 16, Ophelia’s maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph. Minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast at a forward speed near 8 mph. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from Cape Lookout, North Carolina north to the Virginia border; this warning will be lifted later today. A tropical storm watch is in effect from Point Judith, Rhode Island to Plymouth, Massachusetts, including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. Little change in strength is forecast over the next 24 hours as Ophelia turns to the northeast, increasing her forward speed in the process. Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible in areas of onshore winds; the heads of bays and rivers could see storm surge of 3 to 4 feet. Though Ophelia’s center did not make landfall, her eyewall passed over the Outer Banks. Hurricane force winds felled trees and battered properties for hours in southern North Carolina as Ophelia moved slowly up the coast. Power was knocked out to more than 200,000 homes and businesses at one point. Storm surge of up to 8 feet and rainfall amounts of up to 15 inches caused extensive local flooding. While AIR does not expect to see any significant structural damage from Ophelia’s winds, we do expect to see damage to roof coverings, cladding and awnings--damage exacerbated by the fact that Ophelia stalled for much of yesterday. The AIR tropical cyclone team has run scenarios using the latest information about the storm’s current and forecast meteorological parameters, as well as its forecast track. Eleven of these are now posted on the Scenarios page of this website. Also included on the Scenarios page is AIR’s probability of loss exceedance curve for the industry. CATRADER and CLASIC/2 clients can download the event set representing the posted scenarios. Both “All” and “Select” event sets are provided. The “All” event sets contains hundreds of scenarios simulated for this event and are therefore the most appropriate method for estimating your potential losses. Sets of 11 specific scenarios, which are selected from the full event sets and represent the range of potential losses across the full industry loss distribution, are available under the “Select” event sets. This will be the final posting for Ophelia.

Landfall | Downloads
Posting Date: September 16, 2005, 8:30:00 AM