Tropical Storm Ophelia

Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: September 13, 2005, 8:30:00 AM

As of 5 a.m. EDT, on Tuesday, Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to linger offshore, currently sitting about 130 miles east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, and about 150 miles south of Wilmington, North Carolina. Slightly weakened since yesterday, Ophelia has estimated maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 160 miles from the center. Minimum central pressure is currently 990 mb. Ophelia is virtually stationary, with the center of the storm moving around within a broader circulation. A hurricane warning is in effect from the South Santee River in South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout, North Carolina. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect for the southeast coast of the U.S. from north of Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to the South Santee River. Ophelia’s movement should become better defined over the next 36 hours. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that the storm is gradually becoming better organized, poised to begin movement toward the north in the next 12-18 hours and gradually turning to the northeast later tomorrow. The intensity forecast is less certain. Though Ophelia sits over relatively warm waters that would contribute to intensification, water on either side of the storm is cooler, and a source of cool, dry air is drawing in from the southwest which may also inhibit further intensification. The forecast calls for a slight increase in intensity to hurricane status prior to landfall, weakening again once inland. Storm surge of 4 to 6 feet is possible as Ophelia comes ashore. Total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected over northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with possible isolated amounts of 15 inches. Though not forecast to be a particularly intense storm at landfall, Ophelia’s extremely slow forward movement will likely result in prolonged winds and rain. The AIR tropical cyclone team has run scenarios using the latest information about the storm’s meteorological parameters and its forecast track, which are posted on the Scenarios page of this website. Both “All” and “Select” event sets are provided for CATRADER and CLASIC/2 users. The “All” event sets contains hundreds of scenarios simulated for this event and are therefore the most appropriate method for estimating your potential losses. Sets of 11 specific scenarios, which are selected from the full event sets and represent the range of potential losses across the full industry loss distribution, are available under the “Select” event sets. AIR continues to monitor Tropical Storm Ophelia closely and will provide a further update within the next 24 hours.

Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 13, 2005, 8:30:00 AM