Tropical Storm Ophelia

Pre-Landfall 4 | Summary
Posting Date: September 14, 2005, 12:15:00 PM

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, Wednesday, September 14, 2005, Hurricane Ophelia is slowly approaching the North Carolina coast at near 7 mph. The center of the storm is currently located about 40 miles south-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina and about 85 miles southwest of Cape Lookout. The National Hurricane Center expects a gradual turn to the northeast and a slightly faster forward speed, which would bring the center of Ophelia over or along the North Carolina Outer Banks early tomorrow morning. In the meantime, however, Ophelia is likely to come sufficiently close to the coast so that the northern eyewall will cross the southeastern coast of North Carolina later today. Maximum sustained winds are currently near 80 miles an hour, making Ophelia a weak Category 1 hurricane. Minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out to 140 miles. This means that sustained tropical storm force winds with higher gusts are now occurring along the Carolina coast. As the storm gets closer, Ophelia will subject coastal areas to prolonged hurricane force winds, thanks to the storm’s slow forward speed. Ophelia is expected to bring with it a storm surge of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels and rainfall of 4 to 8 inches. Rain of up to 15 inches is possible in some locations. More than 5,800 houses and businesses in North Carolina are already without power. Hatteras Island is under evacuation orders. Schools are closed in coastal communities, including Wilmington. The AIR tropical cyclone team has run scenarios using the latest information about the storm’s meteorological parameters and its forecast track, which are posted on the Scenarios page of this website. Both “All” and “Select” event sets are provided for CATRADER and CLASIC/2 users. The “All” event sets contain hundreds of scenarios simulated for this event and are therefore the most appropriate method for estimating your potential losses. Sets of 11 specific scenarios, which are selected from the full event sets and represent the range of potential losses across the full industry loss distribution, are available under the “Select” event sets. AIR continues to monitor Hurricane Ophelia closely and will provide a further update after landfall.

Pre-Landfall 4 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 14, 2005, 12:15:00 PM