Tropical Storm Ernesto

Pre-Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: August 28, 2006, 8:30:00 AM

As of 11 a.m. EDT, Monday, August 28, Tropical Storm Ernesto is located about 35 miles west-northwest of Guantanamo, Cuba. The storm is moving toward the northeast at near 10 mph and this general direction is expected to continue for the next several hours. Maximum sustained winds are currently 40 mph -- barely tropical storm status. The poorly defined center of Ernesto is currently over easternmost Cuba, where the rugged terrain is likely to weaken the system still further. Ernesto has illustrated just how much uncertainty there is in hurricane forecasting. The center of the storm took a 50-mile northwise step on Sunday, bringing it into contact with Haiti's mountainous southwest peninsula. Interaction with the rugged terrain significantly disrupted the storm's circulation and the NHC downgraded Ernesto to a tropical storm in their 5:00 PM advisory. Diminishing shear and warm waters between Hispanola and Cuba were not enough to restore Ernesto before it arrived on the southeast coast of Cuba this morning. What happens next will depend on how long Ernesto remains over Cuba. If it exits fairly quickly, as is currently forecast, it will have more time to reorganize before arrival in Florida. Warm sea surface temperatures in the Florida Straights -- between 86 and 88F -- and near zero wind shear are conducive for instensification, but because Ernesto is likely to exit Cuba as a much diminished storm, the NHC is currently forecasting that it will barely achieve hurricane status before landfall in the Miami region. The current NHC advisory track then has Ernesto going back out to sea -- where it could intensify yet again -- and on a course that would bring it to or near the the Carolinas later in the week. As always, it is important to note that there is considerable uncertainty in any forecast of intensity. Yesterday, in Haiti, streets and homes were flooded. At least 13 houses were reported destroyed on the island of La Gonave and one person was reported killed when her house was washed away by storm surge. This is a very different outcome from the 2004 bypass of Tropical Storm Jeanne, which resulted in more than 3,000 fatalities in Haiti. Meanwhile, torrential rains are being reported in Cuba, but it appears that the island will be spared both significant surge or damaging winds. The AIR tropical cyclone team is keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Ernesto. Should the storm reclaim its hurricane status in the Florida Straights and head for Florida, a full ALERT posting will be made.

Pre-Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: August 28, 2006, 8:30:00 AM