Hurricane Felix

Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: September 4, 2007, 11:00:00 AM

Hurricane Felix made landfall on the Mosquito Coast of northeastern Nicaragua this morning, just north of Puerto Cabezas. There is some ambiguity with respect to Felix's category at landfall. Maximum sustained winds were near 160 mph, which would make Felix a Category 5 hurricane. However, central pressure was estimated at 935 mb, consistent with a Category 4 storm. The National Hurricane Center warned of an accompanying storm surge of up to 18 feet. The Caribbean coast of Nicaragua is a sparsely populated, coastal wetland region, and home to the Miskito Indians. Puerto Cabezas (official name: Bilwi), the largest town in the area and the only coastal community connected by road to the Nicaraguan capital, has a population estimated at about 30,000, with another 20,000 in small villages scattered throughout the municipality. Attempts to evacuate people in the more remote areas in advance of the storm were hindered by lack of infrastructure and communication. Much of the residential construction in this part of Nicaragua consists of informal housing built poorly, often by the owners themselves, with adobe or wood, and zinc or thatched roofs. These homes are extremely vulnerable to both wind and surge. They are also uninsured. Take-up rates for commercial construction are only marginally higher in Nicaragua. However, while insured losses are likely to be low, the potential damage to structures near the landfall location is likely to result in an urgent need for shelter. Currently, Hurricane Felix is moving west with a forward speed of 16 mph. The hurricane will weaken as it moves inland through Nicaragua today and Honduras later today and tonight. The current forecast track for Felix is well south of Honduras' popular resort island of Roatan, and by the time the system reaches any significant concentrations of exposure in Honduras, including the capital Tegucigalpa, it will have lost much of its strength. However, forecasters predict it will generate heavy rains between 5 and 10 inches, with isolated pockets of up to 20 inches as it moves inland. These have the potential to produce flash floods and mudslides even after winds have dropped below tropical storm strength. In 1998, Hurricane Mitch triggered mudslides that killed near 11,000 in Nicaragua and Honduras. Felix should not produce the massive mudslides that Mitch did, since Felix is a smaller, faster moving storm that should result in less precipitation over a smaller area. Forecasters expect Felix to have become a tropical depression sometime tomorrow before crossing into Guatemala and ultimately into Mexico. According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Felix intensified at the fastest rate on record, taking just 51 hours to strengthen from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane. It was downgraded to a Category 4 storm on Monday, but reintensified shortly before landfall. It is rare for storms this far south to be this intense. On Sunday, Felix tracked north of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba, producing heavy rainfall, but minimal damage. In light of Felix's landfall location and initial track through sparsely populated regions of Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, AIR does not expect significant insured losses from this storm. However, there is a potential for insured losses from precipitation-induced mudslides in Honduras (should they occur), where commercial take-up rates are relatively high. Meanwhile, Hurricane Henriette is expected to made landfall later today near Cabo San Lucas at the southernmost tip of Mexico's Baja peninsula. As of 5:00 AM, PDT, maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph, making Henriette a weak Category 1 hurricane. Cabo San Lucas has a population of about 60,000 and is a popular resort town studded with luxury homes and hotels. However, these are likely to fare well in the face of weak Category 1 wind speeds. The AIR tropical cyclone team continues to monitor the progress of both Felix and Henriette. Additional information will be made available if warranted.

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Posting Date: September 4, 2007, 11:00:00 AM