Hurricane Dolly (Mexico)

Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: July 24, 2008, 2:30:00 PM

AIR estimates that insured losses in Mexico from Hurricane Dolly are between USD50 million and USD100 million. The uncertainty in the Mexico loss estimates stems in part from uncertainty surrounding take-up rates—the percentage of properties actually insured against wind and flood losses. [Please note that loss estimates for the United States from Hurricane Dolly are posted separately, as a separate event on ALERT.] After slowing for several hours to a near standstill about 35 miles offshore, the eyewall of Hurricane Dolly finally crossed South Padre Island at around 1:00 pm EDT yesterday as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph. One hour later, winds had diminished to 95 mph as Dolly hovered just onshore over Laguna Madre, Texas. As of 2:00 pm EDT today, July 24, Dolly has been downgraded to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of near 40 mph and higher gusts. Central pressure is 998 mb. The center of the system is about 30 miles northwest of Laredo, Texas and moving to the west-northwest at about 13 mph. The tropical storm warning that had been in effect along the Texas coast from Brownsville to Port Aransas was lifted at 11:00 am EDT this morning. The National Hurricane Center expects Dolly to become a tropical depression later today, but also forecasts possible isolated tornadoes spawned by the system over south central Texas. The closest distance between the eye of Hurricane Dolly and Matamoros, Mexico was roughly 32 miles, and because the storm tracked to the north, the city was spared the storm’s strongest winds. Nevertheless, at landfall, tropical storm force winds extended outward some 140 miles from the eye, lashing a broad swath of the coast near the Texas/Mexico border with strong winds and heavy rain. Flooding from Dolly is a significant risk in Mexico. The storm is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches of rain—with up to 20 inches in isolated areas—over the northern part of Tamaulipas, the state in which Matamoros is located. Rain is currently reported to be falling at the rate of 4 inches an hour in some parts and heavy rain will continue into at least tomorrow. The storm’s slow forward motion both yesterday and today will exacerbate the effects of the precipitation and increase the risk of flooding across broad portions of the region. While no deaths have been officially reported, in the state of Tamaulipas 13,000 people have taken refuge from flooding and some 50 towns remain at risk. More than 20 shelters have been set up for evacuees. Dolly's winds are reported to have downed trees and power lines throughout the area. About 250,000 people in the state are currently without drinking water because of damage to a water treatment plant in Matamoros. Around the mouth of the Rio Grande, Mexican military personnel in patrol boats yesterday were battling the river's rising waters to rescue several families trapped in their homes. Some 120 people were rescued. Nearly two thousand soldiers and state police have been mobilized to help in rescue and security efforts. Dolly missed most offshore drilling rigs and production platforms, but Mexico's state-owned oil company, Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), evacuated 66 workers from an offshore rig near the Tamaulipas coast. Insured residential properties in Mexico are overwhelmingly of confined masonry construction. Insured commercial properties are dominated by confined masonry and reinforced concrete. Both construction types should fare well in the face of wind speeds of the kind generated by Hurricane Dolly and structural damage is, therefore, expected to be minimal. Still, many homes are likely to have suffered damage to roof shingles. Non-structural elements, such as signs and awnings are likely to have been blown off and there may be also damage to unprotected windows from the wind-borne debris. Informally constructed and typically uninsured housing—particularly those in fishing villages along the coast—will not have fared so well. The AIR tropical cyclone team has developed scenarios for insured losses in Mexico caused by Hurricane Dolly. These are now posted on the Scenarios page of this website. Also included on the Scenarios page is AIR's probability of loss exceedance curve for the industry. Note that the loss estimates provided in this posting include wind and precipitation-induced flood losses to Mexico onshore properties only. CLASIC/2 and CATRADER users can now download event sets from the Events Sets page. Users should be aware of a recently identified CATRADER issue that impacts use of the "All simulated scenarios" event set in CATRADER. The issue does not affect the "Select simulated scenarios" event set of 11 scenarios. While CLFs are not compatible with ALERT event sets , the "All simulated scenarios" event set is improperly associating losses from some CLFs for programs set to "Use CLF only" or "Use CLF +sums insured" with Dolly scenarios. Until the issue is resolved, when running the "All simulated scenarios" event set in CATRADER, AIR recommends setting the Mkt. Shares drop down on the CATRADER analysis screen to "Based on sums insured." This analysis option will override the individual program settings. Please contact AIR Client Services if you have questions related to this issue.

Landfall | Downloads
Posting Date: July 24, 2008, 2:30:00 PM