Tropical Storm Fay

Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: August 19, 2008, 7:02:00 AM

Tropical Storm Fay took an eastward turn sooner than expected and made landfall at Cape Romano, Florida, this morning at around 5:00 a.m. EDT. Landfall was along a low-lying stretch of Florida’s southwest coast just south of Marco Island. Overnight, wind shear of 10 to 15 knots persisted and Fay failed to achieve hurricane status, coming onshore with sustained winds of near 60 mph. The year-around population of Marco Island is estimated by local officials at around 14,000, but grows to as much as 30,000 during high season. Beachfront resort hotels and condos, which are required to meet the Florida Building Code, will not have been affected by Fay’s winds. Single- family homes lining canals on the island may sustain slight damage such as loss of roof covering. While storm surge of 3 to 5 feet above normal tides was expected to accompany Fay, the worst of this will be to the south of the landfall location—away from Marco Island and on a sparsely populated stretch of the coast. Overnight, Tropical Storm Fay lashed the Florida Keys with gusty winds and heavy rain. Sustained winds of 56 mph were recorded by a buoy near Key West, but apart from some flooded roads and downed tree limbs, no significant damage has been reported in the Keys. Yesterday, in Cuba, power was interrupted and telephone lines were downed in Santiago de Cuba Province, as Fay bypassed the southeastern part of the island. In Villa Clara Province, on the north-central coast, 9 inches of rain fell in a 24-hour period. Flooding from the overflow of nearby rivers is reported to have destroyed houses in fishing villages, but no loss of life was reported. Minor roof damage and downed trees were reported elsewhere. As of 8:00 a.m. EDT, Tuesday, August 19, Tropical Storm Fay is located about 30 miles east-southeast of Ft. Myers and 35 miles southwest of Moore Haven on the west side of Lake Okeechobee. Because the system has been traveling over the Everglades, low surface friction has meant that there has been little diminution in wind speeds since landfall. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend some 125 miles outward from the center, which is currently moving to the north-northeast at near 9 mph. Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 Inches are expected across much of the Peninsula, and some areas may receive up to 10 inches. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that isolated tornadoes are possible over southern and central Florida. Schools and government offices are closed today in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties, where scattered power outages have been reported. However, by the time Fay reaches the state’s heavily populated east coast, Fay should be a weaker storm. What happens to Fay next remains highly uncertain. The NHC’s most likely track has Fay exiting Florida near Orlando and then doubling back to make yet another landfall near Jacksonville, but the dynamic forecast models are in considerable disagreement, with some projecting a second landfall in Georgia and others forecasting a much earlier turn to the west-northwest and a second Florida landfall on the Panhandle. The outcome will depend in part on the strength of a trough that is currently steering Fay northward. In either case, it is highly unlikely that Fay will be able to draw sufficient energy to achieve hurricane status. Should Fay find itself again over warm ocean waters, there is a chance that it will reintensify, and the AIR tropical cyclone team continues to monitor the progress of this storm closely. However, based on currently available meteorological information, AIR does not expect significant insured wind losses to onshore properties in the U.S. from Fay.

Landfall | Downloads
Posting Date: August 19, 2008, 7:02:00 AM