Hurricane Jimena

Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: September 1, 2009, 12:00:00 PM

Hurricane Jimena currently is a Category 4 hurricane, but is expected to weaken and to make landfall farther north along a much more sparsely populated section of the Baja California peninsula than forecast earlier. A hurricane warning remains in effect from Puerto Abreojos southward on the west coast of the peninsula and from Mulege southward on the east coast, including the town of Cabo San Lucas. Hurricane Jimena is moving toward the north-northwest at near 12 miles per hour (19 kilometers per hour). As of the NHC advisory of 11:00 am EDT this morning, Tuesday, September 1st, Jimena was about 140 miles (225 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, and about 280 miles (455 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. Because it is approaching the peninsula at an oblique angle, small deviations to the left or right can result in large differences in both the specific location and timing of its landfall. Jimena is the most powerful hurricane to have developed so far this year, its winds having been as high as 155 mph (250 km/hr), putting it at the threshold of Category 5 status. Hurricane Jimena’s maximum sustained winds currently are near 145 mph (230 km/hr) with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward from Jimena’s center up to 45 miles (75 km), while tropical storm-force winds extend out to 140 miles (220 km). Although Jimena is likely to experience some fluctuations in its strength today and to weaken tomorrow as it passes over slightly cooler water, it is expected to remain a major hurricane through landfall. The forecast track for Hurricane Jimena after the next three days is subject to some uncertainty. Currently Jimena is predicted to brush Magdalena Bay on the Pacific side of the peninsula early Wednesday and make landfall north of the city sometime later. Earlier forecasts saw Jimena striking the Los Cabos region along the southern resort coast of the Baja Peninsula and subsequently crossing the Gulf of California to make a second landfall on mainland Mexico. At present the forecast is for movement north up the peninsula or a possible turn to the west back toward the Pacific. The NHC forecasts total rain accumulations of five to ten inches over the southern half of the Baja peninsula and parts of western Mexico in the next few days, with isolated maximum accumulations of 15 inches possible. Additionally, a storm surge, together with battering waves, could produce significant flooding along the Baja coast. The heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, especially since much of the region is desert. Insured residential properties in Mexico are dominated by confined masonry construction, while commercial properties tend to be constructed of confined masonry or reinforced concrete. At the lower wind speeds now expected in the Los Cabos area, damage is expected to be limited to roof shingles and non-structural elements, such as decorative elements and signage. The AIR tropical cyclone team is monitoring the progress of Jimena and will provide additional information as warranted.

Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 1, 2009, 12:00:00 PM