Hurricane Rick

Pre-Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: October 19, 2009, 12:45:00 PM

Hurricane Rick has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane from its Category 5 status Saturday morning when its winds were 180 miles per hour (285 kilometers per hour). At its peak intensity, Hurricane Rick became the second-strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record and the strongest ever to form in the eastern basin in October. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Rick will continue to weaken as it interacts with cooler waters and unfavorable weather conditions. It is forecast to arrive near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula early Wednesday, possibly with hurricane force winds. Rick is expected to bring brief periods of heavy rainfall, but an anticipated increase in its forward speed should minimize flooding. As of 11:00 am EDT, the NHC placed Hurricane Rick about 370 miles (595 kilometers) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, and about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Socorro Island; it is moving northwest at near nine mph (15 kph) with winds of about 115 mph (185 kph) and higher gusts. Rick’s hurricane-force winds extend outward from its center up to 40 miles (65 km), while its tropical storm-force winds extend as far as 150 miles (240 km). The government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch for southern Baja California, from Santa Fe southward on the west coast of the Baja peninsula. Hurricane Rick originated as a tropical depression only four days ago, on October 15th, several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco. It became a hurricane within 24 hours—and intensified to Category 5 status in only 36 hours thereafter. However, increasing wind shear, warming deep convection around its eye, and movement into dry air restrained Rick’s continued outflow to the west and weakened it significantly. Over the next two days an upper level low pressure system will develop over the southwestern United States. Consequently, Rick’s forward speed is forecast to increase and its track to turn more to the north and northeast. Additionally, as Rick interacts with this system it will encounter both drier air and enhanced wind shear, leading to a further gradual decrease in storm intensity. Despite this weakening, Rick is still forecast to be at hurricane strength as it passes the southern Baja area sometime on Wednesday. The tip of the Baja peninsula where Rick is expected to make landfall is a tourist destination and contains a significant number of insured commercial properties. AIR estimates that commercial exposures in the municipality of Los Cabos are about 2.06 billion USD. Commercial properties in the region tend to be constructed of confined masonry or reinforced concrete. Both construction types should fare well at the wind speeds currently forecast at landfall. Structural damage is, therefore, expected to be minimal, although many buildings are likely to suffer damage to roofs and sidings as well as to non-structural elements such as balconies and signage. Rick is the seventh hurricane of this year’s eastern north Pacific season and only the 11th Category 5 eastern Pacific hurricane since 1970, when reliable records began. The AIR tropical cyclone team is monitoring the progress of Rick and will make additional information available as warranted.

Pre-Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 19, 2009, 12:45:00 PM