Typhoon Melor

Pre-Landfall 3 | Summary
Posting Date: October 5, 2009, 1:00:00 PM

Super Typhoon Melor is moving rapidly across the Pacific and is expected to turn north and then northeastward toward Japan tomorrow, Tuesday, possibly making landfall somewhere along Japan’s southeastern coast as early as Wednesday. As of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) 11:00 am EDT Advisory on Monday, October 5th, Melor was about 926 kilometers (575 miles) southeast of Okinawa. Melor has increased the speed of its movement and for the six hours prior to the Advisory had tracked northwestward at about 26 kilometers per hour (16 miles per hour). Melor passed through the Mariana Islands over the weekend, bringing heavy rain but causing only modest damage. It developed from a tropical storm to a typhoon within 12 hours on September 30th, and within two days reached “super typhoon” status, characterized by having winds greater than 250 kph (150 mph). At present its maximum sustained winds are 250 kph (155 mph) with gusts over 300 kph (190 mph). Melor currently displays a well-defined eye that is 50 km (30 miles) across; its maximum winds spread across more than 250 kilometers (160 miles), while its typhoon-force winds extend for 500 km (300 miles). Strong convective bands are wrapping tightly into the storm’s low level circulation center, especially from the south. Earlier forecasts put Melor traveling just to the east of Japan, but at present the majority of models suggest a landfall between the Kyushu region in the south and the Kanto region (which includes Tokyo) in mid-country. Because of the orientation of Japan’s coast, even slight disparities in projected tracks will have significant differences in the likely location of a forecast landfall. For example, at present the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) projects a track that is furthest to the west, making landfall in Wakayama Prefecture. This track is roughly similar to that of Typhoon Vera, Japan’s most destructive typhoon, which occurred almost exactly 50 years ago (September 26th, 1959) and caused record storm surge and flooding. The JTWC-modeled track takes Melor furthest to the east—and does not forecast an actual landfall, instead having the storm pass offshore just south of Tokyo. This track and the JMA track span a 500 km (367 mile) length of coastline. A landfall just west of Tokyo, putting the city on the northeast side of the typhoon, currently is the most likely scenario. However, Melor is expected to weaken from its super typhoon status as it comes closer to Japan because of lower sea surface temperatures and increased vertical wind shear The AIR Tropical Cyclone team will continue to monitor the progress of tropical cyclones Melor and Parma and will issue updates as warranted.

Pre-Landfall 3 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 5, 2009, 1:00:00 PM