Typhoon Melor

Pre-Landfall 4 | Summary
Posting Date: October 6, 2009, 1:00:00 PM

Super Typhoon Melor has taken a northward turn and is bearing down on Minami Daito Island in Japan's far south. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's 0600 UTC Advisory, Super Typhoon Melor is located approximately 435 kilometers (270 miles) southeast of Okinawa in Japan and is moving north-northwest, at 26 km/h (16 mph). Maximum sustained winds are 213 km/h (132 mph), which puts the storm at a Category 4 on the Saffir Simpson Scale. Forecasters expect Melor—locally called Quedan—to turn gradually northward, before making landfall on the Japanese island of Honshu—the largest island on Japan—early Thursday local time. During the next 24-48 hours, the storm is expected to weaken to a Category 2 typhoon as it enters a region of cooler ocean temperatures and strong northeasterly wind shear. An added complication to the track forecast is that Super Typhoon Melor and Tropical Storm Parma are interacting with each other, a meteorological phenomena known as the Fujiwhara Effect. Forecasters say that this effect has brought Melor more westernly than anticipated so that its projected landfall is now farther west on Honshu. Due to the country's strict construction codes, modern homes along the coastal areas of Japan are well engineered and the region has been equipped with storm surge barriers along the most vulnerable coastal regions. Take up rates for wind insurance in Japan are roughly 50% for residential buildings and 95% for commercial buildings, respectively. Officials report that Super Typhoon Melor will be the first typhoon to make landfall in Japan this year. If the storm does make landfall on Honshu near Tokyo, it will become the first typhoon to make landfall on one of the main islands of Japan since Typhoon Krosa made landfall on Kyushu on October 9th of 2007, almost two years ago to the day. The AIR tropical cyclone team is closely monitoring the progress of Typhoon Melor and will provide additional information as events warrant.

Pre-Landfall 4 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 6, 2009, 1:00:00 PM